Purdue Is 0–2. How Much of the Trouble Is Fixable?

Purdue could live with a six-point loss to Gonzaga in Las Vegas to open the season. Losing to Valparaiso at Mackey Arena four nights later raised a harder question. How does an offense with a center playing as well as Daniel Jacobsen still go through enough dry spells to lose both games?

The Boilermakers fell 78–72 to Gonzaga and 83–80 in double overtime to Valparaiso. They get another chance at their first win Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET against Illinois State at Mackey Arena on FS1. The Redbirds were picked second in the Missouri Valley Conference, so Purdue has a capable opponent against which to judge its response.

Start with Jacobsen and work outward

Jacobsen had 28 points and 10 rebounds against Valparaiso. He has averaged 25 points through two games while shooting 75 percent from the field. Purdue as a team has made just 10 of 49 attempts from 3-point range. That combination tells Matt Painter where to start.

Purdue should make Illinois State decide early how it wants to guard Jacobsen. Get him touches before the defense is set. Use him as a screener and make the Redbirds account for his roll. If a second defender comes, the next pass can give a teammate a cleaner look or a lane to the rim. If Illinois State stays home on the shooters, keep making it defend Jacobsen one-on-one.

The shot chart matters more than a target number of 3-point attempts. A catch-and-shoot look after a paint touch is a different possession from a guarded jumper with five seconds left. Purdue can live with the first kind of miss because it has a way to produce that look again. A steady diet of the second kind is a sign that the ball is getting stuck before the offense has forced Illinois State to rotate.

There will be nights when open threes miss. The more useful question is what happens after two or three of them in a row. Can Purdue get the ball back inside, draw a foul or generate a drive before the defense gets comfortable? Those are possessions Painter can influence now.

The response has to show up at both ends

Valparaiso scored 20 points in the first half and 38 in the second to force overtime. The three-point shooting gets attention because 10-for-49 jumps off the page, but the Boilermakers also had a 12-point halftime lead at home and couldn’t make it stick. That’s a reason to watch how Purdue defends after missed shots, how quickly it picks up the ball in transition and whether it gets a rebound after forcing a miss.

C.J. Cox’s 13 points and 12 rebounds against Valparaiso showed how much a guard can contribute while the perimeter offense finds its footing. Purdue needs that kind of work across the lineup. A couple of extra possessions can keep the game from coming down to whether the next jumper falls.

Painter also has a chance to see what Purdue can run when Jacobsen sits. The guards can use an early ball screen to turn the corner, and the wings can cut behind a defender who overplays the passing lane. Those actions give Purdue a way to get downhill while its best interior scorer rests. If the offense survives those minutes, Painter has more freedom to put Jacobsen back in when the game calls for him.

Watch the first few possessions after halftime. A strong opening at Mackey can carry a team to a lead. Coming out of the break and still getting stops, taking care of the ball and working for a quality shot would show Purdue is learning how to hold one.

Monday’s result matters. How Purdue gets there may tell us more. If the Boilermakers give Jacobsen regular touches, turn them into better shots for the players around him and keep control of a lead, they’ll have something they can carry into Friday’s game against Ohio.