NCAA Tournament First Four Game Texas vs N.C State: Preview, Prediction and Top Prop Bets

Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2026 | Time: 9:10 PM ET Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH | TV: truTV

Betting Line: NC State -1.5 | Over/Under: 164.5

The Matchup Context: Texas Firepower vs Wolfpack Momentum

The Texas Longhorns arrive in Dayton with one objective: survive the First Four and earn a spot in the main NCAA Tournament bracket. Head coach Sean Miller guided Texas through a turbulent season, but the Longhorns did enough to secure an at-large bid. Now they face an NC State team playing with urgency and confidence in one of the most volatile games of the tournament.

Texas leans heavily on its explosive backcourt. Jordan Pope has emerged as the offensive engine for the Longhorns, capable of erupting for huge scoring nights from deep while also creating off the dribble. Alongside him, versatile wing Dailyn Swain provides rebounding, defense, and slashing offense that gives Texas balance on both ends of the floor.

Across the court stands a hungry NC State Wolfpack squad led by head coach Will Wade, who took over the program for the 2025-26 season. Wade’s teams traditionally play with toughness and confidence in high-pressure environments, and the Wolfpack have embraced that identity late in the season.

NC State’s offense revolves around explosive guard play. Paul McNeil Jr. has developed into the team’s primary scoring threat, while transfers like Quadir Copeland provide playmaking and defensive pressure. If the Wolfpack can push the tempo and create open perimeter looks, they have the firepower to match Texas possession for possession.

With both teams capable of scoring quickly and playing fast, this First Four matchup could easily turn into one of the highest-scoring games of the opening week of March Madness.

Top 4 Prop Bets

Here are the Top 4 prop bets for tonight’s NCAA Tournament First Four matchup.

Prop Bet #1: Jordan Pope Over 19.5 Points

Pope has been Texas’ most consistent scoring threat throughout the season. His ability to create shots off the dribble and stretch defenses from beyond the arc makes him extremely difficult to contain.

In a fast-paced tournament game where possessions increase, Pope should see plenty of opportunities to attack.

EV Trigger: Strong value at 19.5 points.

Prop Bet #2: Paul McNeil Jr. Over 17.5 Points

McNeil is the most dangerous offensive weapon in NC State’s lineup.

If the Wolfpack are going to keep pace with Texas’ offensive production, McNeil will likely need to produce a big scoring performance from the perimeter.

EV Trigger: Playable up to 19.5 points.

Prop Bet #3: Dailyn Swain Over 7.5 Rebounds

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Dailyn Swain Over 7.5 Rebounds

• Athletic Wing
• Strong Rebounder
• Defensive Presence

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Swain’s versatility is critical for Texas. His ability to rebound from the wing position gives the Longhorns extra possessions and limits second-chance opportunities for opponents.

With both teams playing fast and generating many shot attempts, Swain should see a healthy number of rebounding opportunities.

EV Trigger: Strong value if pace increases.

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Over 164.5

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Over 164.5 Total Points

• Fast Pace
• Guard Dominated
• Offensive Firepower

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Both Texas and NC State rely heavily on guard play and perimeter scoring.

If the game turns into the kind of up-tempo shootout many expect, the over becomes extremely attractive.

EV Trigger: Playable up to 167 total points.

Keys to the Game

For Texas to Win

• Get Jordan Pope going early from the perimeter • Control the tempo and push transition opportunities • Limit NC State’s second-chance points

For NC State to Win

• Create turnovers and fast-break scoring • Get a big scoring performance from McNeil • Attack Texas defensively off the dribble

Betting Odds & Analysis

Spread: NC State -1.5 Total: 164.5

Oddsmakers expect a tightly contested matchup between two teams capable of scoring quickly. NC State enters as a slight favorite due to their defensive pressure and late-season momentum.

However, Texas’ offensive upside and experienced backcourt give them the tools to flip the game if their perimeter shooting gets hot.

Given the offensive strengths of both teams, bettors should expect a high-tempo contest with scoring runs from both sides.

The Verdict

Prediction: Texas 86, NC State 83

Best Value Bet: Jordan Pope Over 19.5 Points

Expect a fast-paced and highly competitive First Four battle in Dayton. NC State will push the tempo and create plenty of perimeter looks, but Texas’ offensive balance and Jordan Pope’s shot-making ability should ultimately allow the Longhorns to survive and advance into the main NCAA T