NCAA First Round St. Louis vs Georgia: Preview, Prediction and Top Prop Bets

Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026 | Time: 9:20 PM ET Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY | TV: TNT

Betting Line: Georgia -1.5 | Over/Under: 171.5

The Matchup Context: A-10 Firepower vs SEC Athleticism

This is one of the most underrated—and potentially explosive—games of the first round.

The #9 Saint Louis Billikens enter the NCAA Tournament riding one of the best seasons in program history. Head coach Josh Schertz has completely transformed the program in just two seasons, leading Saint Louis to a 28–5 record and an Atlantic 10 regular-season title.

The Billikens are built around offensive efficiency and physical interior play, anchored by star center Robbie Avila, one of the most unique and skilled big men in the country.

Across the court, the #8 Georgia Bulldogs bring SEC-level athleticism and scoring punch. Head coach Mike White has Georgia playing a fast, aggressive style, with forward Kanon Catchings emerging as a go-to scoring option after a strong SEC Tournament showing.

This is a clash of styles:

• Saint Louis → efficiency and structure

• Georgia → athleticism and pace

And with a total sitting at 171.5, Vegas is expecting an all-out offensive showcase.

Top 4 Prop Bets

Here are the Top 4 prop bets for today’s NCAA Tournament matchup.

Prop Bet #1: Robbie Avila Over 18.5 Points

Avila is the centerpiece of Saint Louis’ offense and a matchup nightmare.

Georgia does not have a natural answer for his size, touch, and ability to score inside and out.

EV Trigger: Strong value at 18.5 points. Check out the Top Sports betting Sites.

Prop Bet #2: Kanon Catchings Over 16.5 Points

Catchings has become Georgia’s most reliable offensive weapon.

In a high-tempo game, his scoring opportunities should increase significantly.

EV Trigger: Playable up to 18.5.

Prop Bet #3: Saint Louis Team Total Over 84.5

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Saint Louis Team Total Over 84.5

• Efficient Offense
• High Tempo
• Balanced Scoring

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Saint Louis is one of the highest-scoring teams in the A-10 and thrives in fast-paced games.

If this turns into a track meet, they will keep pace.

EV Trigger: Strong value with total above 170.

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Over 171.5

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Over 171.5 Total Points

• Elite Pace
• Offensive Efficiency
• High Possessions

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Open DraftKings

Both teams can score—and neither is built to slow things down.

With a total this high, expect constant scoring runs.

EV Trigger: Playable up to 174.

Keys to the Game

For Saint Louis to Win

• Play through Avila in the half-court • Control tempo when needed • Limit Georgia’s transition scoring

For Georgia to Win

• Speed the game up early • Attack the rim and draw fouls • Turn this into an athletic matchup

Betting Odds & Analysis

Spread: Georgia -1.5 Total: 171.5

This is essentially a coin-flip game.

Georgia has the athletic edge, but Saint Louis has the better structure and offensive efficiency. The biggest factor will be tempo—if this becomes a track meet, Georgia benefits. If it becomes a half-court game, Saint Louis has the edge.

With a total this high, expect offense from both sides.

The Verdict

Prediction: Saint Louis 88, Georgia 85

Best Value Bet: Over 171.5

Expect one of the highest-scoring games of the first round. Saint Louis’ efficiency and ability to play through Robbie Avila should give them the edge late, but this game will likely come down to the final possessions.

This has all the makings of a true March Madness classic.