Memphis Already Beat Iowa State. Can It Take Down Ranked Vanderbilt, Too?

Memphis has already won two games that made it execute late. The Tigers beat then-No. 18 Iowa State in their opener and edged VCU 89–88 on Saturday, when Jayden Reid made two free throws with five seconds left. At No. 22 Vanderbilt on Tuesday, Memphis gets a different test. Can it make enough good decisions early in possessions to keep a disciplined home team from controlling the game?

Both teams are 2–0 entering the 7:15 p.m. ET tip on SEC Network+ at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt opened with wins over Bellarmine and Wake Forest, holding the Demon Deacons to 51 points in a 23-point victory. Memphis brings a win over a ranked opponent and another game that came down to the last few seconds. Those are different kinds of evidence. Tuesday should tell us how each team reacts when the other can take away the first thing it wants to do.

Memphis should push after stops and be selective everywhere else

Reid scored 26 against Iowa State and followed with 32 points and seven assists against VCU. Memphis also turned it over just eight times against the Rams and scored 21 points off VCU’s 13 turnovers. There’s a difference between that kind of pace and simply shooting early. When Memphis creates a live-ball turnover or secures a long rebound, Reid can attack before Vanderbilt establishes its matchups. When Vanderbilt gets back and takes away the rim, Memphis has to be willing to reset and make the defense guard a second action.

That choice affects both ends of the floor. An early contested shot can send Vanderbilt the other way while Memphis still has players below the ball. A drive that draws help and produces a clean kickout is an early shot the Tigers can live with. Rihards Vavers made four threes against VCU. If Vanderbilt sends a second defender toward Reid, Vavers gives him somewhere to go with the ball. Memphis needs to turn that first pass into either an open shot or another drive before Vanderbilt has time to recover.

Vanderbilt can make Reid work for his catches

Tyler Tanner had 17 points and 10 rebounds against Wake Forest. His ability to finish a defensive possession with a rebound and start the offense himself can help Vanderbilt dictate where the next possession begins. On the other end, the Commodores can make Memphis spend more of the clock getting Reid into position. Pressure him on the catch, take away the first driving lane and force another Tiger to make a decision before Reid gets the ball back.

The danger for Vanderbilt is helping too far off shooters to do it. If the first defender can stay attached to Reid long enough for the big to show help and recover, Vanderbilt can keep its shape. If two defenders commit to the ball, the Commodores have to rotate quickly enough to prevent an uncontested three. I’d watch the first few possessions after halftime to see whether Vanderbilt is still using the same coverage or has had to change where its help comes from.

What would make this an upset?

Memphis has a real chance if it keeps its turnovers near Saturday’s eight and creates enough chances before Vanderbilt’s defense is set. The Tigers also need to finish defensive possessions. A stop followed by a Vanderbilt offensive rebound takes away the transition chance and makes Memphis defend again. That’s how the Commodores can control the game without needing to slow it down on every trip.

I give Vanderbilt a slight edge at home. Memphis has the best evidence of late-game execution entering the matchup, though, and Reid has already delivered against two credible opponents. If Vanderbilt goes into the final four minutes without separating, the Tigers will be comfortable playing the kind of game they’ve already won twice.