Kentucky vs Iowa State: Game Preview and Prediction

NCAA Kentucky vs Iowa State Game Details

Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026

Time: 2:45 PM ET

Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

TV: CBS

Betting Line: Iowa State -5.5

Over/Under: 144.5

Kentucky vs Iowa State Prediction & Game Preview

This NCAA Tournament second-round matchup between Kentucky and Iowa State presents a classic battle between offensive firepower and elite defensive pressure, with two teams that thrive in completely different environments.

Kentucky, under Mark Pope, enters this game with confidence after a dramatic opening-round win. The Wildcats rely heavily on perimeter shooting, pace, and guard play. When Kentucky is hitting from deep, they can overwhelm opponents quickly and create runs that shift momentum in an instant.

Iowa State, led by T.J. Otzelberger, brings one of the most disruptive defenses in the country. The Cyclones excel at forcing turnovers, applying constant pressure, and turning defense into offense. Their ability to dictate tempo and control possessions makes them extremely difficult to beat, especially in tournament settings.

From a betting perspective, this game is all about control. Kentucky wants a free-flowing, high-scoring game, while Iowa State wants to slow things down and impose defensive pressure. If the Cyclones control tempo and limit Kentucky’s perimeter looks, they hold a clear advantage.

Iowa State enters as the favorite due to its defensive consistency and ability to control the flow of the game.

Prediction Lean: Iowa State’s defense dictates tempo and carries them late. Check out the Top Sportsbook for betting on March Madness!

Spread: Iowa State -5.5 Total: 144.5

Keys to the Game – For Kentucky to Win

• Knock down perimeter shots at a high rate

• Limit turnovers against Iowa State’s pressure

• Push tempo and avoid half-court defensive battles

Keys to the Game – For Iowa State to Win

• Force turnovers and generate easy points

• Control tempo and limit possessions

• Disrupt Kentucky’s perimeter rhythm

Game Prediction

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Bet Iowa State -5.5

• Defense
• Pressure
• Tempo Control

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Expect Kentucky to start aggressively, looking to create space and knock down early three-point shots to build momentum. Their ability to score in bursts will keep them competitive early.

However, Iowa State’s defensive pressure and ability to force turnovers will gradually shift control. As the game slows and possessions become more valuable, the Cyclones’ discipline and execution should create separation late.

Top 4 Prop Bets

Prop Bet #1: Iowa State Team Total Over 74.5 Points

Iowa State’s ability to generate points off turnovers and create transition opportunities should allow them to reach this number.

EV Trigger: Strong value at 74.5.

Prop Bet #2: Kentucky Team Total Under 71.5 Points

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Kentucky Under 71.5 Team Points

• Defensive Pressure
• Tempo Control
• Shot Disruption

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If Iowa State dictates tempo and limits clean perimeter looks, Kentucky’s scoring efficiency will drop.

EV Trigger: Playable down to 69.5.

Prop Bet #3: Game Total Under 144.5

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 144.5 Total Points

• Pace
• Defense
• Possession Control

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Iowa State’s defensive identity and ability to slow games down should keep the total under.

EV Trigger: Strong value down to 142.

Prop Bet #4: Iowa State -3.0 First Half

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Iowa State -3.0 First Half

• Defensive Start
• Pressure
• Control

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The Cyclones’ defensive intensity should allow them to establish early control before Kentucky settles into rhythm.

EV Trigger: Playable up to -4.

Kentucky vs Iowa State – Final Verdict

Prediction: Iowa State 76, Kentucky 71

Best Value Bet: Kentucky Team Total Under 71.5

Kentucky’s offensive firepower and ability to get hot from deep will keep this game competitive, especially early.

However, Iowa State’s relentless defensive pressure, discipline, and ability to control tempo should ultimately be the difference. Expect the Cyclones to wear Kentucky down and execute late to secure the win and advance.

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