Top Six Most Likely First Round NCAA Tournament Upsets

1. Drake over Missouri

The Drake Bulldogs have faced their fair share of challenges. With a record of 30-3, they are making their third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, this time with a mostly new roster compared to last season. After losing their coach to West Virginia in the offseason, they welcomed Ben McCollum from Division II, who brought four of his players along, including point guard Bennett Stirtz. Stirtz was named the Missouri Valley Conference’s Player of the Year in his first season at the Division I level. Drake is known for its ability to grind out games, which could challenge Missouri, a team that prefers to play quickly. McCollum is one of the five best College Basketball coaches out there, and he can out-coach almost anybody. This Drake team is hazardous and could make a serious run this season. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

After winning four Division II national championships at Northwest Missouri State, Ben McCollum moved up to Division I and quickly started achieving success at this level. He led the team to the MVC regular season title and the conference championship in his first season with Drake. Drake is known for its strong rebounding on both ends of the court and its ability to force turnovers. This aggressive play style allows the Bulldogs to create significantly more scoring opportunities than their opponents. They also rank last in the nation in tempo, meaning they play deliberately slowly. This strategy not only maximizes their own scoring chances but also increases pressure on their opponents, who have limited opportunities to recover from missed possessions. This combination of strengths is effective, and as I like to say in March, different styles lead to different outcomes.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Drake Bulldogs +225

• Drake to Control Tempo
• turnovers will be key
• Neutral site

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2. High Point Panthers over Purdue

I believe High Point is going to beat Purdue. The Panthers are the Cinderella team I had my eye on before the bracket was released, and I think they have everything needed to make a deep run in the tournament. For starters, they possess high-major talent. Kimani Hamilton played at Mississippi State, D’Maurian Williams at Texas Tech, and Bobby Pettiford, a former five-star recruit who began his career at Kansas, is now the sixth man for the Panthers. High Point boasts players who do not resemble a typical mid-major squad. On the other hand, I’m not as confident about Purdue. Aside from Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn, the roster includes several mid-major caliber players. High Point can compete athletically. From a tactical standpoint, High Point can exploit Purdue’s weak interior defense.

Matt Painter is the Purdue Coach, and let’s face it, he is not a good tournament coach. Sure, he took Purdue to the Championship game last year, but the two decades before that were full of tournament losses, and many times Purdue lost as the better seed.

The Boilermakers lack rim protection. They adjusted towards the end of January by increasing perimeter pressure, but this strategy has worn down Smith, who has been struggling recently. High Point ranks 15th nationally in two-point shooting, with a rate of 57% (according to KenPom). The Panthers should excel in scoring inside and at the rim. I also believe they can hold their own defensively. Achieving this won’t be easy. Kaufman-Renn is capable of scoring 30 points against anyone at this point. However, the Panthers have a legitimate seven-foot rim protector in Boto Boto, and Kaufman-Renn faced challenges against Michigan’s size in the Big Ten Tournament. The Boilermakers seem to be running on fumes. I’ve heard rumors that Smith is considering entering the transfer portal after the season. The atmosphere in West Lafayette feels off, and I think High Point is the ideal team to capitalize on this situation.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet High Point +295

• Pettiford to have a big game
• turnovers will be key
• Neutral site

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3. Akron Over Arizona

Akron stands out due to its offensive style of play. The 13th-seeded Zips will face the fourth-seeded Arizona in the first round. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the country and rank fourth in the number of 3-pointers made per game. Fortunately for them, they should be able to maintain their preferred pace, as their opponent also tends to play quickly. More possessions and field-goal attempts will create greater opportunities for them to potentially upset the higher seed. Arizona finished the season strong, but overall I do not truest the wildcats and the Zips have been red-hot and are poised to make a name for themselves.

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4.5/5

Tip: Bet Akron +580

• Akron to control tempo
• turnovers will be key
• Neutral site

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4. Arkansas Over Kansas

Kansas has a record of 5-5 in its last 10 games, which reflects an off year for the Jayhawks. However, their top four scorers are seniors, which could provide some experience on the court. Arkansas will need to focus on containing 7-foot-1 center Hunter Dickinson. Although the offenses of both teams are closely matched in points per game, Arkansas has won three of its last four games under first-year coach John Calipari. This season, the Razorbacks had a record of 4-10 as underdogs. Additionally, they shot only 31.8% from three-point range in their two SEC tournament games, so they’ll need to improve this performance against Kansas. The Razorbacks have played better than Kansas has down the stretch and Kansas looks ripe to be taken. The Razorbacks record was not great because they played in the ultra-competitive Southeastern Conference.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Arkansas +172

• Razorbacks finished the season strong
• turnovers will be key
• Neutral site

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5. New Mexico over Marquette

The Golden Eagles started the season strong but have not finished strong having since won only five of their 12 games since February began. While it’s worth noting that three of those games were against St. John’s, which is a great team, the fact remains that Marquette is a mediocre tournament team this year. In their first-round matchup, they face New Mexico, a team that should be able to compete effectively. Watch for Lobos junior guard Donovan Dent, who ranks eighth in the nation in scoring with an average of 20.6 points per game. He is expected to step up during the crucial moments and help New Mexico achieve its first tournament victory since 2012. Marquette has bot lived up to the hype this season and the Big East was not as good as usual, the Golden Eagles are ripe to be upset.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet New Mexico +138

• Dent to have a big game
• turnovers will be key
• Neutral site

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6. Liberty Over Oregon

The Flames excel at shooting 3-pointers, attempting a total of 921 shots from beyond the arc this season. Four of their starters averaged at least 3.6 attempts per game, with Kaden Metheny leading the team at 7.7 attempts per game. Taelon Peter also stands out as a well-rounded scorer, averaging 13.9 points per game. Additionally, Liberty ranks among the top five teams in the nation for defending the 3-point line. If Oregon decides to engage in 3-point shooting—having shot 34% from beyond the arc this season—it could make for an interesting second half. Now, Dana Altman is a great tournament coach and that makes me more hesitant to make the upset pick in this game, bit Oregon has been a little up and down this season and this seems like a good spot for a Liberty upset.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Liberty +225

• Flames get hot from 3
• turnovers will be key
• Neutral site

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