Top 4 MLB Prop Bets for Today (Wed, Sept. 24, 2025)
With five days left in the regular season, playoff races are squeezing value out of individual matchups. Motivation is sky-high for clubs like Seattle, New York, San Diego and the Mets/Cubs tilt at Wrigley, and that urgency often shows up most clearly in player props. Below are four tightly reasoned angles built on today’s matchups, recent usage, and opponent context. Lines move on getaway days—price shop, and don’t chase steam.
Prop Overview
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Cal Raleigh — To Hit a Home Run (Over 0.5 HR)
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Aaron Judge — Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Pete Alonso — Over 0.5 RBIs
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Dylan Cease — Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Cal Raleigh — To Hit a Home Run (Over 0.5 HR)
Seattle just clinched but is still playing for seeding, and Raleigh remains their best pure pull-side power bat. He draws Colorado at T-Mobile tonight; the Mariners have won 15 of 16 and are still pressing, which keeps the A-lineup intact. Home run projection pieces today specifically call out Raleigh as a leading HR target on this slate, aligning with his fly-ball profile and pull rates.
- Form + Volume
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Favorable Matchup
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Mariners Still Motivated
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Aaron Judge — Over 1.5 Total Bases
The Yankees clinched last night but can still chase AL East positioning, and Judge’s plate appearances remain high-leverage. New York faces the White Sox again in the Bronx; the matchup preview confirms tonight’s game and keeps Judge in a run-producing context at Yankee Stadium. With pitchers forced to challenge him when men are on, two bases via one swing or a double+single is firmly in play.
Tip: Bet Aaron Judge 2+ TB
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Pete Alonso — Over 0.5 RBIs
Wrigley hosts Mets–Cubs with rookie Jonah Tong opposing Matthew Boyd; the Mets’ own page lists the probables. Alonso’s RBI chances rise with extra traffic versus a lefty starter, and market roundups today highlight him among HR candidates—another friendly signal for run-production props. Even a deep sac fly cashes here, so you’re not all-in on homers.
- Crushes LHP
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Middle-Order Volume
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Park Can Play Small
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Dylan Cease — Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Cease goes for San Diego against Milwaukee. He’s sitting on
207 K in 163.2 IP
(11.4 K/9) and projects for length plus whiff ceiling at Petco. Probables pages confirm he’s on the hill tonight; with the Padres jockeying for both the division and wild card, expect a win-now leash and high four-seam/slider usage in K counts. If books hang
6.5, that’s our preferred buy; at
7.5, look for a plus number.
Tip: Bet Dylan Cease Over Ks
- 11.4 K/9 Profile
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Closing Thoughts
Late-September baseball is about urgency. Seattle and New York still have seeds to chase, San Diego is pushing hard, and Wrigley should give Alonso multiple premium RBI spots. As always,
shop lines
(and consider alt-lines when value appears), cap confirmed lineups 60–90 minutes pre-first pitch, and scale stakes to price. A 2–2 day is profitable if you’re targeting plus-money HR/RBI ladders—especially with Raleigh and Alonso carrying home-run equity.
