Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 2026 Wild Card Game 1 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open their best-of-three American League Wild Card Series on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium. A year after New York eliminated Boston in the same round, the rivals meet again with their seasons on the line.

The Yankees will start Cam Schlittler, who finished the regular season 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA. Boston has narrowed its Game 1 choice to Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle but has not announced which pitcher will start. That decision matters for New York’s lineup and for any pitcher props tied to the Red Sox starter.

New York won seven of the teams’ 13 regular-season meetings and has home-field advantage throughout this series. Boston, though, swept a four-game set at Fenway Park in June during the turnaround that carried it into October.

Game Information

Matchup: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Series: American League Wild Card Series, Game 1 Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 First pitch: 8:00 p.m. ET TV: NBC and Peacock Venue: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, New York Probable starters: Boston TBD (Sonny Gray or Payton Tolle); New York Cam Schlittler Moneyline: Yankees approximately -145; Red Sox approximately +121 Run line: Yankees -1.5; Red Sox +1.5 Over/Under: 6.5 runs

The listed prices are a snapshot and can change before first pitch. MLB confirms the game time, broadcast and pitching plans; a current odds listing shows New York favored with a 6.5-run total.

Boston Red Sox: Which Starter Gives Them the Best Chance?

Boston’s first major decision is whether to open with Gray or Tolle.

Gray went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA and led the Red Sox with 20 quality starts. He offers experience and a long track record of controlling a game with command. Tolle, a rookie left-hander, went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and gives Boston a different look with a fastball that can reach 98 mph. Manager Chad Tracy has indicated that one is likely to start Game 1 and the other Game 2.

Whichever pitcher gets the ball, Boston needs to turn its chances into runs. The Red Sox struggled with runners in scoring position for much of September, and Schlittler is a difficult opponent to face when an offense is already searching for timely hits.

Willson Contreras is another player to watch. He led Boston’s projected lineup in power with 27 home runs, but a right-hand injury interrupted his September. His return for the regular-season finale was encouraging; how comfortably he swings Tuesday could affect the middle of the order.

New York Yankees: Cam Schlittler Gets the Ball

New York has chosen Schlittler to set the tone for the series. The right-hander’s 1.95 ERA makes him the strongest reason to favor the Yankees in Game 1, and Boston knows what he can do on this stage: he struck out 12 over eight scoreless innings against the Red Sox in last year’s decisive Wild Card game.

The Yankees also have a lineup capable of winning a low-scoring game with one swing. Ben Rice finished September with 41 home runs and provides a central power threat whether Gray or Tolle starts for Boston.

Aaron Judge’s availability remains a major question. He has been dealing with a right calf injury, and the Yankees have been preparing for the possibility of playing this round without him. Check the announced lineup before making a final decision on New York’s offense or any hitter prop.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

Player-prop lines can move or may not be posted yet. The thresholds below are the numbers at which I would consider each pick; confirm the offered line and starting lineup before placing anything.

Prop Bet #1: Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts

• 1.95 ERA
• Game 1 Starter
• 12 Ks vs Boston in 2025 Wild Card Game

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Schlittler already has proof that his stuff can play against Boston under postseason pressure. His 12-strikeout performance in last year’s Wild Card Series does not guarantee a repeat, but it shows the ceiling behind this pick.

The concern is workload. Eight strikeouts require enough innings and batters faced, and New York can turn to its bullpen if Schlittler’s pitch count rises early. At 7.5, I would take the over. I would pass if the line climbs higher.

Prediction: Cam Schlittler — 8 strikeouts

Prop Bet #2: Ben Rice to Record a Hit

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Ben Rice to Record a Hit

• 41 Home Runs
• Yankees Power Threat
• Projected Near Top of Lineup

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Rice brings New York’s most established available home-run production into this matchup. He hit his 40th and 41st homers on September 23, and MLB projects him near the top of the Yankees’ order.

A hit prop gives him more ways to deliver than a home-run prop. Boston’s starter will shape the matchup, so verify Rice’s place in the lineup once Gray or Tolle is announced.

Prediction: Ben Rice records at least one hit

Prop Bet #3: Willson Contreras to Record a Hit

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Contreras to Record a Hit

• 27 Home Runs
• Boston Middle-Order Bat
• Returned for Season Finale

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Contreras is the Boston hitter I would look to for a decisive at-bat. He hit 27 home runs in 129 games and returned as the designated hitter for the regular-season finale after injuring his right hand.

The hand is the obvious risk. If Contreras starts and looks comfortable during pregame work, one hit is a more reasonable target than asking him to clear a total-bases or home-run line against Schlittler.

Prediction: Willson Contreras records at least one hit

Prop Bet #4: Cam Schlittler to Record at Least 18 Pitching Outs

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Schlittler At Least 18 Pitching Outs

• 1.95 ERA
• Yankees Game 1 Starter
• Strong Starting Rotation

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This prop asks Schlittler to complete six innings. His season-long performance supports the possibility, and a clean start would let New York preserve its relievers for Game 2.

It is still a demanding postseason threshold. A long inning, several walks or an early scoring threat could prompt Aaron Boone to go to the bullpen before Schlittler records his 18th out. I would consider this only at 17.5 outs or lower.

Prediction: Cam Schlittler — 18 pitching outs

Players to Watch

Cam Schlittler — New York Yankees

Schlittler is the central figure in Game 1. His 1.95 ERA and last October’s performance against Boston give New York reason to trust him, but the Red Sox will have had a year to study that outing. The first trip through Boston’s order should reveal whether his stuff is as difficult to handle this time.

Ben Rice — New York Yankees

With Judge’s status uncertain, Rice’s power carries even more weight. He reached 41 home runs during the final week of the regular season and can change a low-total game with one swing.

Willson Contreras — Boston Red Sox

Contreras gives Boston needed middle-order power. The question is how much his injured right hand affects his swing after his return to game action in the finale.

Aroldis Chapman — Boston Red Sox

If Boston takes a narrow lead into the ninth, it can turn to former Yankee Aroldis Chapman. His presence is one reason New York must make the most of its earlier scoring opportunities.

Keys to the Game — Boston Red Sox

Boston must avoid letting Schlittler dictate every at-bat. Making him work through long counts could shorten his outing and create more chances against New York’s bullpen.

The Red Sox also need timely contact. Their September struggles with runners in scoring position make it difficult to assume that a handful of baserunners will be enough. If they get a runner into scoring position early, they must make that opportunity count.

Finally, Tracy’s starting-pitcher decision has to give Boston a path through New York’s power hitters. Gray and Tolle both had strong seasons, but they present different matchups for a Yankees lineup that can change depending on whether it faces a right-hander or left-hander.

Keys to the Game — New York Yankees

New York needs Schlittler to work deep enough to control the shape of the game. If he pitches efficiently through six innings, the Yankees can hand a lead to David Bednar and their late-inning relievers.

The lineup must also produce without assuming Judge will be available. Rice is a major threat, but New York needs contributions throughout the order to avoid putting the entire offense on one hitter.

Most of all, the Yankees should capitalize on home field. They won the regular-season series 7-6 and will host every game of this best-of-three matchup. Taking Game 1 would put Boston under immediate elimination pressure Wednesday night.

Betting Prediction

The 6.5-run total reflects a game that could be controlled by starting pitching. Schlittler has been outstanding all season, while Boston can counter with either an 18-game winner in Gray or a rookie in Tolle who posted a 3.03 ERA.

My lean is Yankees moneyline. Schlittler is the one confirmed starter, New York has home-field advantage, and Boston enters with questions about its Game 1 pitching choice and Contreras’s hand. I would be more cautious with the Yankees -1.5 run line: a game I expect to be decided by one or two runs offers little room for a comfortable cover.

I also lean under 6.5 runs, although one early home run could make such a low total difficult to hold. The strongest individual angle is Schlittler’s strikeout prop if the available number remains 7.5.

The Verdict

Expect another tight October game between these rivals. Boston has the pitching and bullpen to make New York work for every run, and its June sweep showed it can beat the Yankees in bunches.

For Game 1, though, Schlittler gives New York the clearest edge. I expect him to limit Boston long enough for Rice and the Yankees’ lineup to find the runs they need.

Final Score Prediction

New York Yankees 3, Boston Red Sox 2

Betting categoryPickBest BetCam Schlittler over 7.5 strikeouts, if available at that lineRun LineBoston +1.5MoneylineNew York YankeesOver/UnderUnder 6.5 runsTop PropBen Rice to record a hit

Final Prediction

New York Yankees 3, Boston Red Sox 2

The Yankees take Game 1 behind Schlittler, but Boston keeps it close enough to cover the 1.5-run line.