MLB Wildcard playoffs: Best Bets 10/01/24, All 4 Games

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

• Run Line: Astros -1.5
• Moneyline Tigers +126
• Moneyline Astros -148
• Over/Under 6.5

Skubal has a 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA. His average exit velocity is 87.4 mph, and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 84th percentile. His strikeout rate is 30.3%, and his walk rates are under 5%.

Skubal posted exceptional numbers as a starting pitcher, yet his lefty-leaning Astros can hit lefties, which will make this a tough game for the Tiger’s ace pitcher.

At the plate, the Tigers have struggled mightily against lefties over the last month, posting only a 69 wRC with 9.7% walk rate and 31% strikeout rate against them. Chicago White Sox boast a better wRC+ against them, while only three Tigers hitters possess an xwOBA of over 320 off of lefties; Valdez may easily dismantle this lineup.

The Tigers made it to the postseason thanks to a bullpen boasting a 3.72 xFIP, 6.1% walk rate, and 21.9% strikeout rate over the past month.

At first glance, this game would look like a Tigers win. However, looking closer will tell you Houston can hit lefties, and the Tigers struggle against lefties. I like a Tigers upset with Skubal on the mound in game one.

PredictionTigers 3 Astros 1

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4.6/5

Tip: Bet Tigers ML

• Can the Tigers hit lefties
• Skubal will have to be dominate
• Astros at home

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Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles

• Run Spread: Orioles -1.5
• Moneyline Royals +130
• Moneyline Orioles -154
• Over/Under 6.5

This series promises to be captivating between two teams that experienced different second halves. The Royals went 28-22 after the All-Star break but finished poorly by dropping three out of their last five games and struggling through their final two weeks. The Orioles finished just 30-33 in the second half yet managed to win four of their final five games – and it seemed they found their offensive mojo again.

Burnes and Ragans each possess strong starting abilities – they combined for 43 quality starts this year! Burnes had an improved track record against the Royals this season, posting an ERA of 3.97 over two starts as opposed to Ragans’ 7.88 mark against them – particularly considering Orioles hitters are hitting.253 against lefties this year! This game may come down to who has the better bullpens in each matchup.

Both bullpens have not been particularly impressive this season, with the Orioles holding down the 24th bullpen ERA while the Royals sit 20th. While neither team boasts an elite closer, Seranthony Dominguez of the Orioles stands out with impressive swing-and-miss stuff.  I trust them to use their top three relievers in game one and secure victory through Burnes.

Prediction: Royals 3  Orioles 2

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Bet Royals ML

• Royals starting pitching to be the difference
• Orioles have been hot in the last week
• Orioles at home

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New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

• Rub Line: Brewers -1.5
• Moneyline Mets +116
• Moneyline Brewers -136
• Over/Under 7.5

The Brewers closed their season on a strong note, winning three of four home games against the Mets to end the season. Offensively, Milwaukee fared much better, scoring 22 runs over their four home contests, while only 13 scored during the four games for the Mets.

The Brewers hold an edge offensively in this game because of their strong performance against the Mets this season, posting a.256 batting average against them. Meanwhile, Severino has not pitched well of late, giving up ten runs in three starts he made before getting injured last September. He has given up at least three runs in three consecutive road starts and is winless against the Milwaukee Brewers with 11 earned runs surrendered, six of them coming during this season’s single start against them. Their bullpen has allowed six runs in its last two games, as well as feeling fatigue from playing two doubleheaders on Monday. Expect it to have difficulty stopping Milwaukee’s offensive attack in this contest. Peralta has been dominant on the mound in his most recent starts, giving up only four runs in those starts and only one in his two most recent against New York. Milwaukee boasts the second-best bullpen in baseball and should effectively keep New York at bay, so take Milwaukee to cover your moneyline bet.

Prediction: Mets 9  Brewers 5

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Bet Mets ML

• Mets resilient
• Brewers playing well
• Brewers at home

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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres

• Run Line: Padres -1.5
• Moneyline Braves +136
• Moneyline Padres -162
• Over/Under 7

Atlanta needed game 162 to secure its playoff berth, but it faced a significant disadvantage due to scheduling. To determine its wildcard seed, Atlanta needed a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday. Then, it had to travel down south again on Tuesday afternoon.

Additionally, the Braves have yet to announce who will pitch in game one since Chris Sale is out with an injury; Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson or AJ Smith-Shawver is expected to start. Elder has an 6.52 ERA while Smith Shawver has only pitched four and one half innings this year for Atlanta. Meanwhile, Padres pitcher Michael King has shown great promise this year against Atlanta by posting a 4-3 record and posting an impressive 1.57 ERA during May with outings against both Astros and Dodgers teams!

Prediction: Padres 6  Braves 3

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: Bet Padres ML

• Injuries gurt Braves
• Padres are playing well
• Padres at home

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