Minnesota opened as the -146 favorite in Blue Jays vs. Twins Game 2 odds after breaking their long postseason losing streak by defeating Toronto in Game 1. Minnesota is looking forward to continuing its quest towards reaching the ALDS with another victory today against Toronto.
Sonny Gray will start for Minnesota, who finished this year with a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings pitched for them. Jose Berrios of Toronto rebounded after an indifferent 2022 campaign by posting impressive stats over 189.5 2/3 innings pitched with their club.
Gray found his form towards the end of this season, culminating in a 2.79 ERA. At the same time, exceeding expected metrics – in August and September alone, he recorded a 3.3xFIP as his BB/9 rate decreased significantly.
Over the past two months, in approximately 67 innings played, he has only walked 11 batters total – an outstanding mark by any standard in baseball. Additionally, his Location+ ranking stands at an exceptional 108 mark!
Gray’s success stems from having six pitches at his disposal that can be utilized at any point during a count. His Stuff+ has been outstanding overall, and it’s clear that his sweeper and cutter are his two primary weapons with both possessing ratings of more than 115.
Berrios had struggled to pitch effectively throughout most of the season, yet in September, his performance reached new heights – dropping his xFIP from around 4.2 in June through August to just 2.8!
Thanks to increased swings and misses, Berrios has seen his K/9 rate jump to 10.8. But while Berrios’ strikeout rate has increased against righties, his struggles against lefties persist.
Berrios has pitched exceptionally well against righties, posting a.269 wOBA against them; however, his struggles against lefties have been considerable. Minnesota can employ up to five lefty bats against him at once, so his performance may take a turn for the worse.
The Toronto Blue Jays offense entered the playoffs remarkably cold–with only a.316 wOBA during their final 30 days of regular season baseball play – 19th in all of baseball! While Toronto boasts one of the lowest strikeout rates and highest walk rates in MLB, they will face an opponent with outstanding control of his arsenal.
The Blue Jays’ offense has been cold as of late, and I don’t trust Berrios in this spot, especially since the Twin lineup will be loaded with lefty bats. I trust Gray, and the combination of those three games makes it easy to bet the twins to advance.
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