MLB NLDS Playoffs Game 4 Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Series Odds, Tips, and Predictions 10/12/23

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Prediction: Bet Philadelphia to win

• Over/Under: Atlanta vs Philadelphia (8.5)
• Spread: Braves -154
• Pick: Bet Philadelphia to win

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Atlanta Braves will then face Ranger Suarez, who held them off during a shorter Game 1 outing.

The Phillies will counter with Spencer Strider, so bet the under in this game.

The Phillies bullpen must pitch well tonight as I expect no more than 5 innings from Suarez.

Suarez posted a 4.18 ERA against 4.39 xERA this season with a 7.5% barrel rate, average exit velocity of 87.8 mph and 36.1% hard-hit rate. In addition, 22% of batters struck out, while his 8.9% walk rate made for an ideal matchup with Atlanta, who averaged 43.2% ground ball rates themselves.

Philadelphia can hit righties, but Strider stands in their way. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, Philadelphia boasted an outstanding 119 wRC+ and an OPS of.822 off of righties – which also exhibited an 8.9% walk rate and 22.8% strikeout rate; eight Phillies had an xwOBA over 320 against righties.

Relief staff also maintained a 4.o xFIP over the final two months of regular season play, giving Suarez’s departure the Phillies the peace of mind knowing they will have reliable arms ready to fill his shoes.

Strider finished this season with a 3.86 ERA against a 3.04 xERA, boasting an 8% barrel rate with an 88.4 mph exit velocity and a Hard-Hit Rate of 35.6%. His strikeout rate was an impressive 36.8% against 7.6% walk rates; one variable that could come into play here is Strider’s 34.9% ground-ball rate, which could potentially cause issues given Philadelphia’s lineup, but this shouldn’t prove too troublesome for him.

The Braves performed admirably against lefties this season, posting an impressive 128 wRC+ with an OPS of.856 from August 1 until the end of regular season play against left-handed pitchers from August 1-October 1, along with a 21.5% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate against them from August 1-October 1. Atlanta boasts eight batters who possess an xwOBA over.320, so Atlanta’s lineup appears solid; however, I still believe Suarez and their bullpen can shut them down successfully.

Relief pitchers for the Braves posted a 4.50 x FIP from August 1 through the regular season’s end and should have enough pitchers who can pitch innings once Strider exits.

The Phillies are red-hot, but Strider will slow them down. Juarez will give the Braves fits, which will be a close game decided by the bullpens. I like the Phillies bullpen better tonight; the Phillies end the series tonight.

Tip:

Phillies to Win

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