The Diamondbacks got back in this series with a huge game-three win and are at home with one more win, tying the series. I expect this game to hit the over.
Mantiply held a 4.62 ERA against a 3.82 xERA, his barrel rate being 9.5%, average exit velocity being 87.7mph and hard hit rate being 35.8% – all numbers which indicate it’s unlikely he will pitch deeply into this game.
Arizona earned an 89 wRC+ and.699 OPS against lefties during the regular season, striking only 16.5% of times and walking 8.9% of the time. Arizona boasts five batters with wRC+ above 100 in their playoff lineup; these bats should help Arizona match up favorably against Sanchez.
Not questioning Sanchez’s talent as a pitcher. At 26 years old, he posted a 3.44 ERA and 3.77 xERA over 99 1/3 innings this season while forcing groundballs 57.7% of the time and striking out 24.2% of batters; these numbers speak for themselves and likely have him back in Philadelphia’s rotation next season; however, postseason play can be unpredictable and may see Sanchez no further than pitching through five innings due to Phillies relievers shortening spots shakiness and thus creating uncertainty among their ranks compared to what might otherwise have been possible had they started strong earlier.
Offensively, the Phillies had an outstanding offensive season from August 1 through the end of the regular season; their lefty bats produced a 123 wRC+ and an OPS of.832. Additionally, they displayed an exceptional 10.2% walk rate and 24.5% strikeout rate during that timeframe. Philadelphia boasted six batters with a wRC+ over 100; Mantiply generally produces plenty of ground balls; however, they should only see him for one or two innings during playoff games against Arizona, and their bullpen hasn’t been that dominant either, so Philadelphia should produce plenty of offense from those encounters against Arizona bullpen’s lackluster bullpen;
Both bullpens will be hit hard, I think the difference in this game will be Arizona’s starter will go deeper into the game than Philadelphia’s will. Take the Diamondbacks at +100.
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