Here’s your detailed betting preview for Monday, July 28, 2025, when the Los Angeles Dodgers travel to face the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park:
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds
Run Line: Dodgers -1.5
Moneyline Dodgers -184
Moneyline Reds +158
Over/Under 9
These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 07/28/25, coming from DraftKings. Check out the
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Team Context & Trends
Dodgers
(61–45): Defending World Series champs, coming off a 2-of-3 series loss to Boston, seeking bounce-back on the road
Reds
(56–50): Winners of four straight, including a fresh home sweep of Tampa Bay, riding strong momentum at home
Historically, the Reds swept the Dodgers in Cincinnati last season and took the season series 4–3
⚾ Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Los Angeles Dodgers
Season performance: 8–7,
2.55 ERA,
1.05 WHIP,
124 K
across
109⅓ innings
in 20 starts — ranking among the NL’s elite in ERA and strikeouts.
Recent form: Allowed one or fewer runs in four of his last five outings. Last time out he struck out eight over five scoreless innings, though didn’t factor in the decision.
Stuff and style: Uses a multi‑pitch arsenal—95 mph fastball (touching 99), deceptive splitter, cutter, curve, sinker, slider—and boasts premier control; just 37 walks on the season ~2.2 BB/9.
Platoon strength: Limiting lefty hitters to a .176 average; very effective historically vs. Cincinnati’s left-handed bats.
Track record in Cincinnati: Making his second career outing in Great American Ball Park. In his prior visit last May he had eight Ks in five innings but allowed four runs and took the loss, which turned out to be his final loss of 2024.
🔥 Chase Burns – Cincinnati Reds (Rookie)
2025 rookie campaign: 0–2 record, with a
6.65 ERA
and
1.62 WHIP
through 21⅔ innings over five starts.
Strikeout upside: Mashes minor league pedigree into pro performance: K rate ~35%, including back-to-back 10‑K starts in his last two outings.
Consistency issues: While generating swing-and-miss, Burns has given up big innings—six earned runs in his most recent outing and seven in another—leading to high ERA.
Experience factor: This is just his sixth MLB start, pitching to major-league batters for short bursts. He’ll face his stiffest test yet in a Dodgers offense built to punish mistakes.
🧠 Outlook & What to Expect
Yamamoto: Will rely on his splitter and fastball combo to keep Reds hitters off balance; expect him to attack the zone early and let his defense work. He should limit damage and go at least six strong innings, winding up without free passes and well in command of plot.
Burns: Brings high upside and fresh confidence from recent K-heavy performances—but pitching to LA’s swing-and-miss savvy lineup could lead to quick damage if he falls behind in the count. Risk of pitch-count escalation and early departure looms.
✅ Betting Implications
Best-case scenario for Dodgers bettors: Yamamoto sustains dominance into the mid-to-late innings, neutralizing Reds bats, potentially trimming run line or moneyline value.
Risk angle: Burns could induce strikeouts early and limit damage, making Reds +1.5 or alternate props like
under on innings thrown by Nico Hoerner/first-run scoring
more appealing if his velocity holds.
Prop angles to watch: Strikeouts for both starters (Burns overs at 7+ K; Yamamoto props). Over/Under on innings pitched by Burns may trend low.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Money Line
This is a 50/50 game to me, so you have to take a slight home underdog in my opinion.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Reds ML
Reds Playing well
Bullpen will be the difference
Reds at home
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds vs Over/Under Analysis 7
Both squads trending toward
overs: Reds scored 29 runs over past six, Dodgers’ bullpen has allowed 23 in its past five appearances. Total line ~9 looks playable Over.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 9.5
Reds will score runs
Reds won four straight
Bullpen will be key
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