Mets vs Cubs: Game Preview and Prediction 04/17/26

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs Game Details

Date: Friday, April 17, 2026

Time: 2:20 PM ET

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

TV: Local Broadcasts

Betting Line: Cubs -136

Over/Under: 10.5 Runs

Mets vs Cubs Prediction & Game Preview

This National League matchup between the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs features a contrast between a struggling team searching for answers and a club looking to solidify its footing at home.

New York enters at 7–12, still trying to find consistency after a difficult start to the season. The Mets have struggled to generate sustained offense, often failing to capitalize in key moments. Their pitching has shown flashes, but without run support, those efforts have not translated into wins. This game presents an opportunity to reset momentum and build confidence on the road.

Chicago, at 9–9, sits at the .500 mark and is aiming to gain traction in the division. The Cubs have relied on versatility and situational execution to stay competitive, particularly at home. With Wrigley Field providing a familiar environment, they will look to capitalize on their recent rhythm and secure another win.

From a betting perspective, this matchup centers on momentum versus potential. New York has the talent to compete, but Chicago brings current form and home-field advantage.

Top 4 Prop Bets

Prop Bet #1: Edward Cabrera Over 6.5 Strikeouts

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Cabrera Over 6.5 Ks

• Velocity
• Strikeouts
• Value

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Edward Cabrera has been dominant to start the season, and his ability to generate strikeouts makes this prop highly appealing. His high-velocity arsenal allows him to challenge hitters and force swings and misses, particularly against a Mets lineup that has struggled with consistency. If Cabrera maintains his aggressive approach in the strike zone, he should have multiple opportunities to rack up strikeouts. Given his current form, this prop presents strong value.

Prop Bet #2: Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Senga Over 5.5 Ks

• Swing-and-Miss
• Upside
• Value

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Kodai Senga’s signature “Ghost Fork” remains one of the most difficult pitches for hitters to handle, making him a consistent strikeout threat. Even in games where he has struggled with command, his ability to generate swings and misses keeps his strikeout totals competitive. Facing a Cubs lineup that can be aggressive at times, Senga should have opportunities to exceed this number. This prop offers solid upside.

Prop Bet #3: Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 Hits

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Hoerner Over 0.5 Hits

• Contact
• Consistency
• Value

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Nico Hoerner provides a steady presence at the top of the Cubs’ lineup, consistently making contact and setting the tone offensively. His ability to put the ball in play and find gaps makes him a reliable option to record at least one hit. Against a pitcher like Senga, who relies on deception, Hoerner’s disciplined approach could give him an advantage. This prop offers dependable value.

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Over 10.5 Runs

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Over 10.5

• Offense
• Ballpark
• Value

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With Wrigley Field known for its unpredictable conditions and both teams capable of generating offense, the over presents a strong opportunity. While the starting pitchers have the ability to control the game, any lapse in command could quickly lead to scoring opportunities. Additionally, bullpen usage may play a role in the later innings, increasing the likelihood of runs. Given the high total, this prop still holds value.

Pitching Matchup: The Ghost Fork vs. The Power Prospect

Kodai Senga (RHP, New York)

The Arsenal: High-velocity fastball paired with the devastating “Ghost Fork.”

The Profile: Senga remains a key piece of the Mets’ rotation, looking to provide stability and length.

Edward Cabrera (RHP, Chicago)

The Arsenal: Explosive fastball with high-end velocity and strikeout potential.

The Profile: Cabrera has emerged as a breakout performer, dominating early in the season.

Team Breakdowns

New York Mets

Coaching Philosophy: Emphasis on defensive stability and plate discipline.

Need to Improve: Offensive consistency and run production.

Chicago Cubs

Coaching Philosophy: Versatility and situational execution.

Need to Improve: Maintaining momentum and maximizing scoring opportunities.

The Verdict

Prediction: Cubs 7, Mets 4

Pick: Cubs -136

While the Mets have the talent to compete, Chicago’s current form and home-field advantage give them the edge. Edward Cabrera’s strong start to the season should continue, allowing the Cubs to secure a solid win at Wrigley Field.