NFL Quarterback Rankings: Week 16

There’s no singular stat that defines a “great” quarterback on a year to year basis, but there are several that can be pieces to that puzzle. In these rankings, all that matters is what these quarterbacks have done this season – past Super Bowls, MVP awards, and All-Pro teams are irrelevant here. Future outlook, potential, and physical talent don’t matter here. Health is a big factor, as are game-winning production and team success. I also use analytics to help add some context to the basic stats. This is a ranking of current projected starting quarterbacks – no backups, no injured players. With all that being said, here are the starting NFL quarterback rankings: week 16!

*Stats accurate entering week 16*

Notes

• Philip “Old Man” Rivers and Brady Cook will start for the Colts and Jets again this week. Two new quarterbacks will be starting for the Dolphins and Chiefs respectively.
• Gardner Minshew takes over for the injured Patrick Mahomes (Torn ACL). Kansas City has been eliminated from playoff contention, and Mahomes will be out of action for at least 9 months following successful surgery.
• Seventh round rookie and former Texas Longhorn Quinn Ewers will be starting for the over-payed and disappointing Tua Tagovailoa. Tua didn’t play terribly in last week’s loss against the Steelers, but clearly the coaching staff believed it was time for a change. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 15 interceptions. Is this the end of Tua’s time in Miami?

What is EPA/Play?

EPA/Play (Expected Points Added Per Play) measures how much a single play helps or hurts a team’s chances of scoring, by looking at the change in expected points before and after the play – adding context like field position, down, distance, and time. EPA/Play shows if a play was truly valuable (example: a 5-yard gain on 3rd & 4 = high EPA) or just stat accumulation (example: 5 yards on 3rd & 10 = low EPA). This gives a better picture of player efficiency beyond just raw yards gained or lost.

What is CPOE?

CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) measures a QB’s completion percentage relative to the types of throws they make. A positive CPOE means the quarterback is completing more passes than expected, given the difficulty of the throws. This usually indicates high accuracy and good decision-making. A negative CPOE means the quarterback is completing fewer passes than expected, suggesting they might be missing easy throws or struggling with accuracy. This gives some context on completed passes beyond just raw completion percentage.

What is ANY/A?

ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt) calculates passing efficiency by combining passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks into one metric, rather than just depending on raw yards per attempt. This is used for measuring overall passing performance per attempt with situational context. It rewards productive plays while penalizing turnovers and negative plays like sacks. A higher ANY/A means a more efficient and valuable quarterback performance.

What is QBR?

QBR (Total Quarterback Rating) was created by ESPN as an advanced alternative to the standard Quarterback Rating stat. Quarterback Rating has no way to measure context, as it only considers raw numbers and doesn’t consider things like play calling, field position, opposing defense, etc. QBR is meant to reward winning plays rather than pure volume or manufactured efficiency. A crucial play in the final minutes of a close game is weighted more positively than an identical play in the fourth quarter on the wrong side of a blowout. QBR is measured from 0 to 100. On a season level, a QBR of 50 is average, 75 or higher would be elite performance, and 25 would be considered replacement-level performance.

What constitutes a “Bad Play”?

A “Bad Play” includes interceptions thrown by the quarterback, fumbles lost by the quarterback, and sacks taken. Not all interceptions are the same, but a pick is a pick, even if it is off the wide receivers hands. There are rare occasions that a coach might say taking a sack was the right decision during a particular play – this is not one of those occasions. A quarterback’s top two jobs are to get the offense into position to score points, and to take care of the football.