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The 2021 NFL Draft contains more star quarterbacks and offensive tackles than any class in the last decade. Between the pending injection of youth and an already hectic free agent market, the NFL’s landscape will shift drastically in the coming months. However, all eyes are on the draft, which could make or break seasons for several Super Bowl contenders.
I opened my mock 2.0 by promising another addition in two weeks. That article went live on Feb. 7. Maybe I set my sights too high this year, but we’ll still have five or six mocks out by late April when the draft starts. Keep an eye out for more draft content as March rolls on, including an updated prospect big board.
While I focused more on what I would do in my previous two mocks, this article focuses on what I think will happen. We’re at a stage in the pre-draft process where everyone wants to predict outcomes. If you disagree with any of my selections, feel free to yell at me about them over on Twitter.
The 2021 NFL Draft is officially open.
Mock 2.0- Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson
Mock 1.0- Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson
I refuse to become one of those people that second guesses the obvious decisions as we approach the draft. New head coach Urban Meyer was front and center at Lawrence’s pro day. The former national champion by far has the best scouting report of any quarterback in the 2021 class. Lawrence is the consensus first overall pick. Jacksonville’s real draft starts after they get their quarterback of the future.
Mock 2.0- Penei Sewell, OT Oregon
Mock 1.0- Zach Wilson, QB BYU
The Jets probably take a quarterback here, especially since the 2022 quarterback class doesn’t have the same depth or ceiling as the last several drafts. However, Sewell is the better prospect, and I wouldn’t put it past head coach Robert Saleh breathing life into that dying franchise. Sam Darnold was a legitimate contender to go first overall in 2018. New York should give him another year.
Drafting Sewell gives New York two young tackles on rookie contracts. In this scenario, Mekhi Becton probably stays on the left, and Sewell slides to the right.
Trade: Panthers trade 8th pick to the Dolphins for 3rd pick
3. Carolina Panthers (*Via Dolphins/Texans)- Zach Wilson, QB BYU
Mock 2.0- Zach Wilson, QB BYU (Pick traded to 49ers)
Mock 1.0- Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU
Carolina explored several options at quarterback this offseason, and they’re still not entirely out of the hunt for Deshaun Watson. While Teddy Bridgewater had a decent 2020 campaign, he’s a middle-of-the-pack quarterback. Meanwhile, Wilson has plenty of intriguing physical tools, can throw darts into small windows, and has above-average pocket control.
The Panthers have to trade up to at least fourth if they want a shot at either Justin Fields or Wilson. Luckily, both Atlanta and Miami could look to accumulate picks by moving back.
Trade: Broncos trade 9th pick to the Falcons for 4th pick
4. Denver Broncos (*Via Falcons)- Justin Fields, QB OSU
Mock 2.0- Justin Fields, QB OSU
Mock 1.0- Justin Fields, QB OSU
The Falcons aren’t making the playoffs anytime soon. Adding a 17th game and an extra playoff spot won’t change that. Instead of pulling a Green Bay and taking a long-term heir years ahead of time, Atlanta trades their pick to a team in need of a new starter immediately. Drew Lock wore out his welcome in Mile High when he tied for the league-lead with 15 interceptions this past season.
Fields is far from flawless. He had rough outings against Indiana and Northwestern this past season but showed up when it counted against Clemson. With 4.42 speed and a sturdy frame, Fields is already a more dynamic player than Lock. The Broncos are a quarterback away from being an 8-8 (or I guess an 8-9) team.
Mock 2.0- Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU
Mock 1.0- Penei Sewell, OT Oregon
There are only four potential prospects that Cincinnati should pick here, and I’ve mocked a new one to the Bengals each time. Chase, Parsons, Pitts, and Sewell are the best players at their positions in the 2021 NFL Draft. In this scenario, I went with Pitts because you can line him up almost anywhere, including at wide receiver. He’s one of the ultimate chess pieces for an offense.
However, if Joe Burrow tells the front office that he wants Chase, they’d better reunite the two former college teammates. Selecting Chase at fifth overall is also an awesome move for Cincinnati. Either way, I think they’re getting a future All-Pro. Unfortunately, I think the offensive line and defense are larger areas of need for the Bengals.
Cincinnati is in an unfortunate position. At fifth, they’re outside the range where a team needs to trade up to get a top-three quarterback. If the draft plays out how I have it here, with three quarterbacks and Sewell going in the top four picks, the Bengals probably won’t have many trade options and will get stuck selecting at fifth overall.
Mock 2.0- DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama
Mock 1.0- DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama
Eagles fans rejoice! Howie Roseman isn’t taking a quarterback at sixth overall. He’s taking the no-brainer wide receiver, which is what he should’ve done with Justin Jefferson last year. While there’s a significant chance that Cincinnati takes Chase off the board, he’s made it down to sixth in this mock. Philadelphia can’t pass on the chance to reinvigorate its receiver corps.
Chase only had one standout season at LSU, and it came alongside an explosion from Burrow. That might make some evaluators nervous, but Chase routinely made spectacular catches and created separation with his route running. He’s the best wide receiver prospect since Amari Cooper in 2015.
Trade: 49ers trade 12th pick to the Lions for the 7th pick
7. San Francisco 49ers (*Via Lions)- Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech
Mock 2.0- Trey Lance, QB North Dakota St. (Pick traded to WFT)
Mock 1.0- Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama
Every team from No. 7 through No. 10 needs cornerback help. Luckily for San Francisco, the Lions are interested in trading back and accumulating more picks for their long-term rebuild. Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, and Ahkello Witherspoon are all unrestricted free agents this offseason, which means the 49ers need a total reset at cornerback.
Farley is the No. 12 prospect on TGT’s big board, sitting one spot behind the 11 blue chip prospects. At 6-2, 207 lbs., Farley has all of the tools to cover elite athletic pass-catchers. He mirrors routes, has fluid hips, excels in press coverage, and should run in the 4.3s.
Mock 2.0- Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern
Mock 1.0- Micah Parsons, LB PSU
With Carolina chasing their future franchise quarterback, Miami moves back a few places with the potential to still get a No. 1 option at wide receiver. The debate at this spot comes down to Waddle vs. DeVonta Smith. Both receivers played with Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama, which could be why the Dolphins take a receiver. Ultimately, Waddle has a clearer path to the NFL than Smith.
Maybe I’m overthinking this by putting Waddle over Smith, who just had a record-setting Heisman season, but Smith is 6-1, 175 lbs. That frame is worrisome, even if Smith creates natural separation with his route running. Meanwhile, Waddle is a more dynamic receiver that is far better than Henry Ruggs III, who was the top receiver drafted last year.
Mock 2.0- Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama
Mock 1.0- Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama
Atlanta used the 16th overall pick in last year’s draft on Clemson’s AJ Terrell. At the time, it felt like a reach for the former Tiger. However, Terrell was the most productive first-round corner from the 2020 class. Now, the Falcon has a chance to get his running mate and form a duo that can define their team moving forward.
The Falcons have many needs, and I’m not sure that this organization can return to playoff form before Matt Ryan’s prime ends. Building the defense and offensive line seem like the best options for winning immediately and securing some kind of stable future. If Atlanta passes on Surtain here, Rashawn Slater and Kwity Paye could generate some interest.
Mock 2.0- Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech
Mock 1.0- Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech
In theory, the Cowboys have their starting tackles for 2021 already under contract. However, Tyron Smith is swiftly declining at 30 years old and only played two games last season. Likewise, La’el Collins missed the entire year after a standout campaign in 2019. Dallas could save $10.5 million if they release Smith after June 1 or $8.55 million by releasing Collins with the June 1 designation.
Dallas became a playoff team in the middle of the 2010s behind a dominant offensive line. That unit proved last year that it’s past its prime. Slater has the chance to step in and start anywhere along the line immediately. He had some great games at left tackle, including one against Chase Young, but some teams view him as a guard. Either way, Slater is an upgrade for Dallas.
Mock 2.0- Kyle Pitts, TE Florida
Mock 1.0- Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan
With Chase, Pitts, and Waddle off the board, New York selects Alabama’s Heisman-winning receiver. Smith dominated last season, amassing 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. While he was historically productive, NFL teams often draft based on potential. Smith has the lowest ceiling of the top-four pass-catchers in this class, and his wiry 175 lb. frame could raise some eyebrows.
New York desperately needs a No. 1 receiver. Darius Slayton led the team with 751 receiving yards in 2020. While Sterling Shepard and Slayton are solid options, they don’t consistently get open, and they can’t single-handedly take over games. Smith has that potential.
Mock 2.0- Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama (Pick traded to Dolphins)
Mock 1.0- Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech
The Lions are in long-term rebuild mode. It doesn’t matter if Dan Campbell wants to win this year. That’s not happening. Ideally, Smith or Waddle fall this far, and the Lions get to trade back while still landing a top-shelf receiver. However, both of those options are off the board. That leaves Parsons, the No. 5 player on TGT’s big board, as the best remaining prospect.
Detroit invested a first-round pick in middle linebacker Jarrad Davis a few years ago, and that never worked out. The Lions adding Parsons gives them a linebacker with Pro Bowl potential to play alongside Jamie Collins. While we didn’t see a ton of Parsons in coverage at Penn St., he has the speed and agility to play the whole field in the NFL.
Trade: Colts trade 21st pick to the Chargers for the 13th pick
13. Indianapolis Colts (*Via Chargers)- Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech
Mock 2.0- Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech
Mock 1.0- Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern
Indianapolis was a hot destination spot for quarterbacks over the past two offseasons because of the offensive line. That unit got significantly weaker when long-time left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired in early January. Rather than surround Carson Wentz with playmakers, Indianapolis prioritizes trading up for a franchise left tackle.
Darrisaw is No. 13 on our big board and is the third-best offensive lineman available. Balance, length, mobility, technique, he has everything NFL teams could want. Darrisaw saw significant playing time during each season with Virginia Tech, which gives the league a great baseline for how well he’s developed in such a short time.
Mock 2.0- Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan
Mock 1.0- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami
This year’s edge class is one of the weakest in recent history. All of the top players come with some concerns. While Miami’s Jaelan Phillips is TGT’s top-ranked edge rusher, his lengthy history with concussions keeps him out of the top-20 selections. Instead, Minnesota pairs Paye with former All-Pro Danielle Hunter.
Paye showed significant development during each of his four seasons with Michigan, but the Guinea native still has a long way to go. He’s already a reliable run defender, but NFL teams hope the 272 lb. defensive end can add more to his game as a pass rusher. Paye’s floor is a three-down, run-stopping defensive end. He’ll probably have four to six sacks as a rookie.
Mock 2.0- Micah Parsons, LB PSU
Mock 1.0- Trey Lance, QB North Dakota St.
I’ll admit that it’s doubtful that Lance falls to the middle of the first-round. Quarterbacks are too valuable. If he’s on the board past No. 5, some team will trade up to take him in the top ten. Maybe that’s the move for Chicago or Washington, but neither of those teams wants to give up that many picks to jump over ten spots. That leaves Lance on the board for Bill Belichick.
The Patriots should celebrate Christmas early if they don’t have to trade up for Lance. While the one-year starter isn’t a guarantee to succeed, he’s a great value selection at 15th overall. At worst, it saves New England from using a pick on Mac Jones. Lance has excellent mobility and the best arm in the draft, but he might take the Josh Allen path early in his career.
Mock 2.0- Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina
Mock 1.0- Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina
Jaycee Horn is the consensus No. 3 cornerback in the 2021 NFL Draft, but there’s a significant gap between him and the top two guys. The Cardinals need reinforcements at cornerback and linebacker, but they also need a running mate for DeAndre Hopkins. Christian Kirk isn’t the answer, and Larry Fitzgerald is a 37-year-old free agent.
At 6-2, 210 lbs., Bateman is an interesting combination of size and strength. He isn’t going to outrun the defense like Waddle, but Bateman’s route running creates natural separation. Once he has the ball, Bateman can take on defensive backs and drag them for extra yardage.
Mock 2.0- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE Miami
Mock 1.0- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame
Most mocks have Barmore going in the late first-round. There’s a chance he goes higher if the Raiders keep with their usual tradition of reaching for defensive prospects. Las Vegas finished 29th in sacks this past season with 21. Maxx Crosby was the only player on the team with more than three sacks.
Jon Gruden’s team could roll the dice on a defensive end like Jaelan Phillips or Gregory Rousseau, but Barmore has fewer glaring issues. He’s also the lone stud interior pass rusher in a weak class for defensive linemen. Las Vegas has willed Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins, and Kendal Vickers to fill that position, but they even struck out on Maurice Hurst. It’s time to try again.
Mock 2.0- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame
Mock 1.0- Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa
The Dolphins recently parted ways with versatile defensive captain Kyle Van Noy. The former Patriot was one of the team’s only standout performers along the defensive front, and he ranked 200th on TGT’s top 200 NFL players heading into 2021. Miami has a great cornerback corps, but they need serious help at linebacker and safety.
Picking Owusu-Koramoah kills two birds with one stone. While he played linebacker at Notre Dame, he also lined up in the slot and could serve as a pseudo third safety. Despite his 215 lb. frame, Owusu-Koramoah made 24.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks during his two seasons as a starter for the Fighting Irish. He’s the ultimate defensive chess piece in this draft.
Mock 2.0- Kadarius Toney, WR Florida (Pick traded to Lions)
Mock 1.0- Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan
Washington recently parted ways with Alex Smith per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Unless they’re sipping the Taylor Heinicke Kool-Aid after only two career starts, Washington could take another shot at drafting a quarterback early. Jones doesn’t have a first-round grade, and I’m not optimistic about him carrying a franchise. Unfortunately, Washington has a long history of making controversial decisions.
Jones played with four first-round wide receivers, Najee Harris, and the nation’s best offensive line at Alabama. He’s joining a middle-of-the-pack team known for a strong defense and flawed quarterback play. That’s a recipe for disaster.
Mock 2.0- Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan
Mock 1.0- Wyatt Davis, OL OSU
Cosmi played both right and left tackle in college, giving him a level of versatility that Chicago desperately needs. At his peak, Cosmi might develop into a starting left tackle one day, but he’ll probably enter the NFL as a right tackle. The Bears could save $5.4 million in cap space by releasing veteran right tackle Bobby Massie.
While Cosmi showed his mobility with the Longhorns, his frame hasn’t filled out yet. Analysts want him to add more functional strength to compete against the league’s strongest pass rushers. Cosmi doesn’t have the same ceiling as Christian Darrisaw, but he’s the draft’s best second-tier offensive tackle.
Mock 2.0- Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas
Mock 1.0- Kadarius Toney, WR Florida
Los Angeles can’t pass on an offensive lineman in the first-round. Dan Feeney and Forrest Lamp are free agents. Mike Pouncey recently retired, and Trai Turner is a prime cut candidate. Outside of Bryan Bulaga at right tackle, the offensive line is completely in flux. A strong o-line is a young quarterback’s best friend. The Chargers have to prioritize protecting Justin Herbert.
Vera-Tucker played left tackle at USC and could find himself taking some snaps from Trey Pipkins and Sam Tevi at that spot. However, Vera-Tucker’s best fit is as an offensive guard. At No. 15, Vera-Tucker is the fourth-best offensive lineman on TGT’s big board.
Mock 2.0- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami
Mock 1.0- Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas
Tennessee is one of the only teams in more desperate need of extra pass rushers than Las Vegas. The Titans produced 19 sacks, the third-fewest in the NFL, this past season. Mike Vrabel’s team seems happy with Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons along the defensive front, but everything else could change this offseason.
Phillips is 18th on TGT’s big board, making him the highest-ranked edge rusher. Unfortunately, the former No. 1 high school recruit in the nation suffered multiple concussions during his time at UCLA. He even medically retired from football before transferring to Miami and resuming his playing career. There’s always the risk that he walks away again.
Mock 2.0- Najee Harris, RB Alabama
Mock 1.0- Najee Harris, RB Alabama
Robert Saleh’s team has plenty of needs. Alabama’s Najee Harris makes a lot of sense here. The Jets need a replacement for Frank Gore and can’t roll into 2021 with La’Mical Perine as the top back. New York can find talented running backs in the second or third-round. They’re desperate for some star power at cornerback and linebacker.
While the Jets might go with Zaven Collins here, Horn also fits a massive need. Blessuan Austin, Bryce Hall, and Lamar Jackson (a 2020 UDFA) were their top outside corners this past season. While Hall made some plays, New York still lacks a true top corner. I’m not sold on Horn as a top coverage option immediately out of college, but he’s better than anyone on New York’s roster.
Mock 2.0- Teven Jenkins, OT Oklahoma St.
Mock 1.0- Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame
Ben Roethlisberger recently turned 39 years old. His patented escapability is gone along with some of his arm strength. Pittsburgh’s offensive line can’t fall apart now if the Steelers want a prayer of not finishing last in the AFC North this coming season. Maurkice Pouncey retired, and Matt Feiler and Alejandro Villanueva are free agents. In this scenario, Jenkins is Villanueva’s replacement.
While he isn’t the most polished pass blocker, Jenkins is a monster in the running game. He seeks out defenders with bad intentions. Pittsburgh desperately needs that fearsome mentality and motor in the running game. At worst, Jenkins can kick inside to guard, where he had some experience in college.
Mock 2.0- Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame
Mock 1.0- Kyle Pitts, TE Florida
Jacksonville needs significant reinforcements in the secondary. The team already drafted C.J. Henderson last year, and they go after the draft’s top safety here. Moehrig might be Jacksonville’s best defensive back from Day 1. He’s incredibly smart and was tremendous in zone coverage at TCU.
The Jaguars need as many young leaders as possible. Moehrig was the brain and heart of TCU’s secondary in 2020. He’s got tremendous range and won’t shy away from coming down against the run. While he could take better angles to tackles, Moehrig is an immediate impact starter for Meyer’s team.
Mock 2.0- Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa
Mock 1.0- Eric Stokes, CB Georgia
I’m higher on Collins than most analysts. He’s No. 14 on TGT’s big board, only trailing Micah Parsons among linebackers. Over the past three seasons, Collins dominated the American Athletic Conference, amassing 236 tackles, 25 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, five interceptions, and two defensive touchdowns in 32 games. In 2020, he was the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, a Consensus All-American, the Bronko Nagurski Award winner, and the Chuck Bednarik Award winner.
We haven’t seen a ton of Collins in man coverage, which could scare some teams away. Offenses tend to target rookie linebackers, often exploiting them for easy yardage and big plays in the passing game. So long as Collins isn’t left alone on an island, he should do fine, but picking up tight ends or slot receivers is probably beyond him right now.
Mock 2.0- Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn St.
Mock 1.0- Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL USC
In this scenario, the Ravens find a trade partner for Orlando Brown Jr. before the draft. Brown informed Baltimore earlier this offseason that he wants to play purely left tackle moving forward. The Ravens have former All-Pro Ronnie Stanley returning to his role at left tackle this coming season following a leg injury in 2020.
Mayfield only started 15 games at Michigan, but he flashed the tools to become a long-term starter in the NFL. He won’t hit the NFL with the same experience or polish as Liam Eichenberg or Jenkins, but Mayfield has a higher ceiling than either of them.
Mock 2.0- Nick Bolton, LB Missouri
Mock 1.0- Nick Bolton, LB Missouri
The Saints could target Florida’s Kadarius Toney here. Toney is a versatile receiver that can lineup in the backfield, but he’s more of a project player than Marshall. New Orleans is in a world of cap trouble this offseason, which could lead to the team cutting Emmanuel Sanders or Tre’Quan Smith. If that happens, Marshall offers immediate production.
Sean Payton’s team might not even be competitive in 2021, depending on how they handle the cap situation. Cuts and free agent departures might shift New Orleans’ focus in the coming weeks, but Marshall and Nick Bolton are both excellent fits.
Mock 2.0- Asante Samuel Jr., CB Florida St.
Mock 1.0- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU
While the Packers could use a No. 2 option at wide receiver, the front office hasn’t used a first-round pick on a receiver since 2002. That won’t change this year since Green Bay needs a replacement for free agent Kevin King. King was the team’s top pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he had a shaky first four seasons. Tom Brady beat King for a touchdown right before halftime in the NFC Championship Game.
Newsome only played 17 games at Northwestern because of injuries, which is why he’s a second-round pick on TGT’s big board. Elijah Molden, Aaron Robinson, and Asante Samuel Jr. are the only other cornerbacks with second-round grades, and they all have one or two noticeable flaws. Newsome isn’t a significant reach for the Packers at 29th overall, but he has injury concerns.
Mock 2.0- Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL USC
Mock 1.0- Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama
Rousseau has all of the physical tools to be a great NFL defensive end. He’s got a great first step, long arms, and is explosive at the point of contact. Rousseau only played in 14 games during his time at Miami, which is why he could fall as far as 30th overall. However, a team that develops young talent well could unlock Rousseau’s Pro Bowl potential.
It’s time that Buffalo adds someone other than Jerry Hughes to the pass rush rotation. Signing Mario Addison last offseason didn’t help, and Ed Oliver hasn’t lived up to expectations yet. The Bills finished 15th in sacks last season with 38.
Mock 2.0- Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota
Mock 1.0- Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas
I doubt that the Chiefs would even think of drafting a left tackle if Eric Fisher was healthy. Unfortunately, the two-time Pro Bowler tore his Achilles in the playoffs. He’s facing a long recovery that could stretch into the 2021 regular season. Meanwhile, Eichenberg is a plug-and-play starter at left tackle.
This is the final year of Fisher’s contract, and the 30-year-old could be heading for a messy split with Kansas City. The Chiefs can save almost $12 million by releasing Fisher, which would free up money to extend Tyrann Mathieu and fix the defense.
Mock 2.0- Christian Barmore, DT Alabama
Mock 1.0- Travis Etienne, RB Clemson
The Dolphins recently decided to release Kyle Van Noy to save roughly $9.75 million. Van Noy was a captain on the defense and arguably the team’s best player on the defensive front. Tampa Bay could save $14.25 million by cutting left tackle Donovan Smith. The 27-year-old just had a career-year, but Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, and Chris Godwin mean more to the team.
Tampa Bay wants to win another championship this coming season. If that means cutting Smith to re-sign Barrett, David, and Godwin, so be it. Radunz is No. 38 on TGT’s big board, but he comes with a few drawbacks. He played at the weaker FCS level and isn’t as polished as the other tackles selected in this mock.
Nick Bolton, LB Missouri
Jabril Cox, LB LSU
Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio St.
Travis Etienne, RB. Clemson
Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn St.
Najee Harris, RB Alabama
Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia
Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas
Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn St.
Asante Samuel Jr., CB Florida St.
Kadarius Toney, WR Florida
Javonte Williams, RB UNC
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