Publish Date: 11/16/2018
Fact checked by: Mike Goodpaster
The Eagles are on a slide, and the Saints are rolling but can Sean Payton, and Drew Brees’ men beat Wentz and the brotherly-love boys by more than a touchdown? Caesars, a top sportsbook has the New Orleans Saints listed as massive, 8.5-point favorites. Any time you have a point-spread larger than a touchdown in the NFL, it’s a big deal.
March Towards The Playoffs
These two teams are on completely different paths right now. The Eagles started the years as Super Bowl LIII favorites. Experts and pundits thought that Philadelphia would be nearly unstoppable. Instead, we have seen them struggle week in and week out. Now they only have a 22.4% probability of making the playoffs and a minuscule 0.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The exact opposite can be said for the New Orleans Saints. They began the season at +2000 (20 to 1) to win the Super Bowl, and now they are tied with the Rams at +400 as Super Bowl LIII favorites. After their one loss, the Saints have pretty much destroyed every opponent they have come across, and now they have a 99.5% chance at making the playoffs and have the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl at 22.3%.
So these two teams are fighting for two different things. The Saints are trying to secure the easiest route through the playoffs, while the Eagles are scratching and kicking, fighting just to try and get a berth. If the Philadelphia Eagles manage to take down the New Orleans Saints this Week, it keeps them alive for now. If the Saints lose, not much changes with regards to them making the playoffs. This is something that needs to be considered when trying to predict the outcome of this game for your Survivor Pools and Sports Investing.
The Eagles are in a rough spot. They are sitting with a record of 4-5 and have only covered the point spread three times this season. The spread for this matchup is currently at 8.5 points, but it opened at one touchdown. Saints backers saw the Eagles poor performance and immediately hopped on New Orleans which drove the market up. Here is why:
The Saints have the best home offense in the league. They are averaging 37.25 points per game while in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. This is over 17 points more than the Eagles area averaging on offense this season. The one good thing that Philadelphia has going for them is their road defense has been solid. They have only allowed 21 points per game while playing as the visiting squad, which is good enough for 8th in the league.
That said, no one has been able to stop Hurricane Drew and the New Orleans Saints on their path of destructions. The Eagles have kept teams scoring in the lower 20s, but they still end up losing because they seem to sputter on offense. And the other factor is … they haven’t faced an offense that is this potent yet.
Pound and Pass
The Eagles list of injuries looks like a war memorial. Their secondary is completely wiped out, they are shy on receivers and TEs, and lacking some depth on the defensive line. Even though New Orleans isn’t loaded at receiver right now, Drew Brees is still going to decimate the poor Philly secondary. And it will start with pounding the ball with Kamara, Ingram, and Thomas. Those three will soften up the already battered Eagles defense and then Brees will start to pick them apart through the air.
8.5 points is a lot. Also, the fact that the original line was handicapped at 7 points should make you at least pause for a moment and consider the situation. However, the Saints should win by 10 points or more.
Prediction: Take New Orleans -8.5