NFC Championship Game Beating the Spread, Packers at 49ers

Why the 49ers can cover the 7.5 point spread

The Niners have had the Packers’ number as of late, winning five of the last seven meetings against Green Bay. They have won three of the last four postseason matchups, as well, including the last three games played at home. The Niners are as healthy as they have been in a while and they may be the most complete team in the NFL.

Offensively, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been strong especially during the second half of the season, completing 340-of-495 passes for 4,109 yards and 28 touchdowns in 17 games. In one career start against the Packers, Garoppolo connected on 14-of-20 passes for 253 yards and two scores. That earlier matchup this season was a rout by the 49ers and the question here will be is there anything that the Packers can do to change that result?

Why the Packers can cover

Why the Packers can cover comes down to two simple words, Aaron Rodgers. In seven career games against the 49ers, Rodgers has hit on 64 percent of his passes for an average of 290.1 yards and 14 touchdowns, while throwing just 2 picks. He is a special player and it may be the only position where the Packers are better than the 49ers. Normally that would never be enough but the threat is always there that Rodgers can get hot and do something special.

Prediction

San Francisco controlled every aspect of its earlier showdown against the Packers this season. The 49ers earned 339 total yards compared to 198 from the Packers, and they held the Packers to just to 2-of-18 on third and fourth downs.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo produced 253 passing yards, which was amazingly 149 more than Aaron Rodgers racked up.

The 49ers running backs complemented their signal-caller with a pair of rushing scores, compared to none from Green Bay. Even though the Packers defense has been much better this season, the rush defense has been a weakness. Luckily against the Seahawks, the Packers did not have to worry as Seattle was, for the most part, without a serious run threat.

San Francisco’s biggest asset in the November 25 meeting was its pass rush that totaled 10 quarterback hits and 5 sacks. This is a game where it is hard to see a way that the Packers can compete and make this a game. The best chance for that would be multiple Jimmy G. turnovers and that’s not a strong reason to pick the Pack to cover. I say take the Niners and give the points.

49ers 27, Packers 10