VA
  • TGT on YouTube
  • About TGT
  • The TGT Team
  • How TGT rates
  • Responsible Gambling Advice
  • Contact Our Team
  • Writers Wanted
  • Content Disclaimer
  • Affiliate Disclosure
Contains commercial content
Billboard Left
Billboard Left
The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Tale of Two Carrs: The Case for Drafting a Quarterback Last

Tale of Two Carrs: The Case for Drafting a Quarterback Last

The case for drafting a QB last
Publish Date: 06/17/2017
Fact checked by: Mike Goodpaster
The Houston Texans quarterback David Carr throws a pass against the New York Giants during the third quarter of Sunday's NFL game at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey November 5,2006. James Nielsen (Houston Chronicle)

The entire model of NFL team building is upside down. The league and the media outlets that cover it chant the mantra of quarterback first. On Draft Day, experts line up to say why all the losing teams must start by getting a star quarterback. Then we watch the general managers fall over themselves trying to do exactly this, making massive trades to move up for untested quarterbacks. Sometimes quarterbacks who started just a single year. Players with known and obvious flaws that quarterback gurus are hoping to fix. The whole system is flawed and backward.

The Texans Start From Scratch

In 2002, the Houston Texans participated in their very first draft. They followed the standard plan: They used their first pick to get a star quarterback and set about to build around him. David Carr walked onto the scene as the starting quarterback and the face of the franchise. Houston then continued that draft with two defensive backs, three defensive tackles, and a defensive end. They did add to the offense with Chester Pitts and Fred Weary on the offensive line and Jabar Gaffney.

In 2003, the Texans added Andre Johnson. While there is no debating Johnson’s value to the franchise, there were few other key offensive picks. Houston actually drafted two more quarterbacks in this draft as well (Dave Ragone and Drew Henson). Furthermore, they drafted a fourth quarterback in 2004.

All in all, through the first five years of the franchise’s existence, Houston drafted seven offensive linemen. This team picked five wide receivers in that span. Also, this team with a 3-4 defensive formation picked eight defensive linemen. Five of these defensive linemen were drafted within the first three rounds.

The Oakland Raiders Rebuild

The Oakland Raiders went 5-11 in 2009 and had fallen into the same trap as Houston. The 2009 season was JaMarcus Russell‘s third in the NFL. It was also his last. That year, Oakland ran with a few quarterbacks getting a second chance. Jason Campbell and Carson Palmer came in and played some, and the Raiders even kicked the tires on Terrelle Pryor.

While these quarterbacks held their own between 2010 and 2013, the Raiders were building an offensive line. They drafted six linemen in the first three rounds of these years, seven total. Yet, between 2008 and 2012, they did not draft a quarterback. In 2013, they broke this streak with Tyler Wilson in the fourth round.  The following year, the Raiders selected Derek Carr in the second.

The Raiders do not still have all the players they drafted in those years: Jared Veldheer is starting in Arizona, Joe Barksdale is starting for the Los Angeles Chargers, and Stefen Wisniewski saw six starts for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016. Still, this was the base of the stability for Derek Carr. After Carr arrived, the Raiders added Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree in 2015 and supplemented their depth on the OL with Jon Feliciano.

Results Matter

It is a mistake to look back and think the entire David Carr moment was a bust. David got progressively better each year in this first three seasons. In his third year, David completed 61.2% of his passes for 3,531 yards with 16 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Consider again that he was playing on an expansion team. Through five seasons in Houston, David only missed five games (all of them in 2003).

The drop off began in 2005, the fourth season. David kept his completion percentage north of 60%, but the yardage fell off. He kept a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio (14:11), though also producing the second-fewest total attempts of his five years in Houston (423 attempts). In his time in Houston, David finished with 60% completion percentage, 13,391 yards, 59 touchdowns and 65 interceptions. The most passes he attempted in any season was 466 (about 29 per game).

Derek entered the league and also started right away. His very first year, he attempted 599 passes. He had a great touchdown-to-interception ratio with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. This improved every year. 2016 was his third season. Derek completed 63.8% of his passes for 3,937 yards, 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He did not start the final game due to injury.

Raw numbers are one thing. Yet, on yards per attempt, the comparison gets closer. In David’s second season, he managed 6.82 yards per attempt and then had 7.57 in his third year. Derek had a similar 6.96 yards per attempt in his second year and then 7.03 in his third season. Derek managed a higher touchdown rate of 5.58% in his second year and earned a 5.0% in his third.  David was 3.05% and 3.43%, respectively. These numbers are interesting, as David had Andre Johnson in his WR corps during these years; Derek was able to counter with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

The Biggest Number

In three seasons in Oakland, Derek Carr has been sacked 71 times. David Carr was sacked 76 times in his rookie season. Derek’s worst season for sacks (31 in 2015) would have been the second-best season of David’s career in Houston (ahead of 41 in 2006). David was sacked 249 times in five seasons in Houston — about 50 sacks a year!

For perspective, Tyrod Taylor led the NFL in sacks in 2016 with 42. Only five quarterbacks were sacked 40 or more times. From 2010 through 2016 only Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Blake Bortles have gone through a 50-sack season. It actually happened to Bortles twice. In David Carr’s first four seasons, he had two years with more than 68 sacks.

David Carr is not alone. Tim Couch had over 50 sacks twice in his first three seasons. He reached 3,000 yards in his third season. Then he got the expansion Browns to 8-6 in 14 starts during his fourth season. That year, 2002, Couch completed 61.6% of his passes for 2,842 yards, 18 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He was out of football just two years later.

Rick Mirer beat Drew Bledsoe for Rookie of the Year honors in 1993.  He took 47 sacks as a rookie. Then had another 42 in his third season. 116 sacks in his first three years. After his third year, Mirer never started more then nine games in any other season. He also never had 2,000 yards passing or completed better then 54% of of his passes over a year.

Draft Quarterback Last

The lesson of recent history is that you need a quarterback to win, but you need him in the long run. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady stepped into teams that already had quarterbacks the year before. Each were on teams that had been building around someone else for years. This helped.

The hype starts with a logical fallacy: Teams that win have great quarterbacks, therefore get a great quarterback and you will win. Teams with great quarterbacks prepared for those quarterbacks. You have to till the soil before you sow the seeds. Too often, NFL teams build in the wrong order.

Follow us on Twitter @jbarn54 and @GruelingTruth and Like us on Facebook.

Read Also
Esteban de Jesus, Roberto Duran y AIDS (1972-89)
Many of us dream of celebrity sports fame, but only cruel individuals ...
Grading every NFL team’s picks from the 2021 NFL Draft
Quickly, click away if you’re going to get upset by reading draft ...
SI Sportsbook Promo
Sam Teets 2021 NFL three-round predictive mock draft 6.0
This is a predictive NFL mock draft and my final of the ...
Sam Teets 2021 NFL mock draft 4.0- Free agency shakes things up
Despite the salary cap dropping to $182.5 million, the start of NFL ...
Top 100 remaining 2021 NFL free agents after Day 1
This is the most up-to-date list of available NFL free agents following ...
Sam Teets 2021 NFL Mock Draft 3.0- Two teams trade up for QBs
The 2021 NFL Draft contains more star quarterbacks and offensive tackles than ...
Predicting the next five Pro Football Hall of Fame classes
Induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio is ...
Ranking the top 200 players in the NFL ahead of the 2021 season
This list isn’t based solely on performances from the 2020 NFL season. ...
Bonus of the month
SI Sportsbook - Get your Free Bet now! Get your Free Bet now!
Latest News
Governor of North Dakota Doug Burgum signs gambling compacts
Governor of North Dakota Doug Burgum declared Friday ...
Bears quarterback Justin Fields to play Sunday against Packers
Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is expected to ...
Top 10 Indiana Hoosiers of All-Time
Today we look at the greatest Indiana Hoosiers ...
Our Latest YouTube Videos
Video: NFL Prediction Show: Week 9 Picking all games against the spread
NFL Prediction Show: Week 9 Picking all games against the spread
Video: Froggy Talkin Sports W/ Ryan and Joe
Froggy Talkin Sports W/ Ryan and Joe
Video: College Football Championship Weekend Preview!
College Football Championship Weekend Preview!
Betting Tips
Top Betting Sites
Top Betting Bonuses
SI Sportsbook
SI Sportsbook
SI Sportsbook Review
97/100
BetRivers.com
BetRivers.com
BetRivers.com Review
95/100
BetMGM
BetMGM
BetMGM Review
94/100
DraftKings
DraftKings
DraftKings Review
92/100
FanDuel
FanDuel
FanDuel Review
90/100
SI Sportsbook
SI Sportsbook Bonus
BET $20 GET $200 IN FREE BETS
T&Cs apply
9.7/10
First deposit only | 21+ & located in CO, MI, VA | Promo code EXTRA200| A qualifying bet is $20 or more | Min odds of +120 or more | Free Bet Tokens credited after bet is settled and expire after 7 days | Free Bet stakes not included in winnings | Please Gamble Responsibly - Gambling Problem? VA: CALL 1-888-532-3500, CO: CALL 1-800-522-4700, MI: CALL 1-800-270-7117 | Full T&C apply
BetRivers.com
BetRivers.com Bonus
100% up to $500
T&Cs apply
9.5/10
BetMGM
BetMGM Bonus
100% up to $1000
T&Cs apply
9.4/10
DraftKings
DraftKings Bonus
20% up to $1000
T&Cs apply
9.2/10
WynnBET
WynnBET Bonus
Bet $100 Get $100
T&Cs apply
9/10
Our Team
Mike GoodpasterAuthor IconJosh SchwartzSamuel TeetsMark Lewis
+6
Mike Goodpaster
Mike Goodpaster
Chief Editor
Author Icon
Christopher Carlson
Content Writer
Josh Schwartz
Josh Schwartz
Editor
Samuel Teets
Samuel Teets
US Sports Veteran
Mark Lewis
Mark Lewis
Editor
Simon Briffa
Simon Briffa
Sports Editor
Chris Benedict
Chris Benedict
Editor
Author Icon
Malik Zorrok
Author
John Raspanti
John Raspanti
Author
Brian Coburn
Brian Coburn
Author
Peter Bonahoom
Peter Bonahoom
Author
Billboard Left
Billboard Left
Find out what the legends have to say about sports this week....

If you enjoy hearing from the legends of pro sports, then be sure to tune into “The Grueling Truth” sports shows, “Where the legends speak”

Contact us: [email protected]

Players must be 21 years of age or older or reach the minimum age for gambling in their respective state and located in jurisdictions where online gambling is legal. Please play responsibly. Bet with your head, not over it. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, and wants help, call or visit: (a) the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey at 1-800-Gambler or www.800gambler.org; or (b) Gamblers Anonymous at 855-2-CALL-GA or www.gamblersanonymous.org.

Trading financial products carries a high risk to your capital, especially trading leverage products such as CFDs. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This site is using Cloudflare and adheres to the Google Safe Browsing Program. We adapted Google's Privacy Guidelines to keep your data safe at all times.

ccww
Move to Top
Close
Our Sports Pros recommend these awesome Social Casino sites this week:
×
Your Bonus Code:
The bonus offer of was already opened in an additional window. If not, you can open it also by clicking the following link:
Visit Site