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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Beating the Spread: AFC Wildcard Game Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Beating the Spread: AFC Wildcard Game Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Preview and prediction
Publish Date: 01/04/2020
Fact checked by: Mark Lewis
Source: Action Network

Spread: Texans -2.5 (-120) | Bills +2.5 (+100)

Moneyline: Texans (-145) | Titans (+125)

Game Total: OVER 43.5 (-110) | UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are a hard-nosed, physical football team led by multi-dimensional quarterback Josh Allen, who can beat you with his arm or his legs. I really think that over the next couple of years the Bills will develop into a consistent playoff team with a serious shot at eventually ending up in a Super Bowl. They are a disciplined and well-coached team that will not beat themselves.

Betting Record: SU 10-6 | ATS 9-6-1 | O/U 4-12

· Offense: 23, scoring 19.6 points per game

· Defense: Second, allowing 16.2 points per game

· Turnover Rank: 10th with a +4 differential

Houston Texans

Injuries seem to be the biggest enemy for the Texans. They have a big-time quarterback in Deshaun Watson but a lack of weapons and a below-average offensive line that has been a problem for the last 5 weeks. WR Will Fuller needs to play for the Texans to have a chance to make any noise in these playoffs. J.J. Watt will look to upgrade a Texans defense that has struggled at times this year, but will he be able to make the difference in this game?

Betting Record: SU 10-6 | ATS 7-8-1 | O/U 7-9

· Offense: 14, scoring 23.6 points per game

· Defense: 19, allowing 24.1 points per game

· Turnover Rank: 17th with a +/- 0 differential

Prediction: This is a tough game to call and if Will Fuller was 100 percent I would lean towards the Texans, but I doubt he will be. With that being said, I like the upset here in a close, hard-fought game. I think the Bills will be able to impose their will at the line of scrimmage and Josh Allen will make some plays with his legs, and WR Cole Beasley and RB Devin Singeltary will have a big game when it matters most.

I will take the points and the Bills in this spot.

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