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NBA Playoffs Predictions: Golden State vs. Houston Game 6

It's coming down to the wire

The Celtics are out. The Trail Blazers and 76ers are in peril (at time of writing). And Golden State has the chance to go into Houston to blast the Rockets out of the playoffs.

Can the Warriors end this series in six games or are they going to have to go back to Oakland for a brutal Game 7?

The best sportsbooks have the Houston Rockets opening as -7 favorites in this one. Apparently, they have a lot of faith in home court advantage in Game 6. But can they win, let alone cover 7?

Last Time Around

On May 8th, the Warriors got the 104-99 win over the Rockets in Oracle Arena. This fell right in line with our thoughts on the affair. After all, this makes it 8 straight meetings where they win margin has been six or less for either side.

The scoring was less explosive than expected as well. Sportsbooks in Vegas and around the world had the Total Points set at 221, yet they missed with their combined score by 18.

This Time Around

Fans are hopping on the Warriors to cover the +7 number, which is understandable. So far around 65 percent of the public are on Golden State to cover the number. Even more astounding is the fact that at this point, 99 percent of the public are on the OVER. The Total is set at 211.5. So it seems that the bookies have split the difference between the last total they set and where it actually landed.

Stats Comparison

  • Golden State puts up 117.59 on the road
  • Houston puts up 116.65 at home.
  • Golden State allows 111.00 on the road
  • Houston allows 108.83 at home

The Houston Rockets have just over a two-point situational point advantage for Game 6. Yet, the sportsbooks are laying seven on them? It seems like a bit much. We’ve mentioned before that the Warriors are notoriously bad at covering point spreads. But that is mostly due to the fact that they get crazy high, double-digit lines and are rarely underdogs. That said, there is a small sample size of underdog ATS stats, but they haven’t done well there either.

  • Golden State as underdogs 4-5-0 ATS, 44.4%
  • Golden State as away underdog 4-4-0, 50%
  • Golden State after a win, 26-36-1, 41.9%
  • Playoff Games, 4-7-0, 36.4%

As you can see, the Warriors pretty much suck at covering point spreads.

Meanwhile, the Rockets are:

  • 7-3-0 ATS in playoff games, 70%’
  • 27-17-2 ATS as the home team, 61.4%
  • 24-16-2 ATS as home favorites, 60%
  • 15-16-1 ATS after a loss, 48.4%

The Rockets are pretty much machines at covering the spread while in Houston. Except … after a loss. They tend to just scrape by in games following a loss. Almost like as if losing were a stiff drink that comes loaded with a hangover.

This is the one thing that makes me want to side with the public and take the Warriors. Well, one of two things. As before, these two teams almost always stay within six points of each other. So when we couple this with the fact that the Rockets tend to flop against the spread after a loss, it makes taking the Can’t-Cover-Warriors a lot more enticing.

So, bank on these two teams keeping within six of each other and take the Warriors to cover. You might want to move fast because all of this action could move the line down to 6.5 or 6.

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