Expected value calculation is the foundation of the free picks at PromoGuy. The EV of a bet shows the average value of a bet, and it’s one of the most valuable calculations you can use to boost your bankroll.
Using an EV betting calculator, also called an expected value betting calculator makes it easier to do the math, but there are some important details that come with it. Join the PromoGuys to learn how to find profitable bets, odds boosts, and promos. Keep reading to learn how calculating expected value sports betting works.
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If you’re a beginner at sports betting, the term “value bets” may not sound familiar. Even if you’ve been enjoying sports betting for some time, the term still may have evaded you. However, if you talk to betting experts, conduct some research on betting as more than a recreational activity, or scroll through our TGT guides, chances are you know about value bets, and you also know what they entail.
A value bet is a bet where the probability of a provided outcome is greater than what the odds on offer indicate. Value bets are based on the concept of expected value or EV. This basically means that any bet with a positive expected value can be seen as a value bet. Sometimes, value bets and +EV bets are interchangeable because, even though negative expected value or -EV also exists, +EV directly refers to the concept of a value bet.
Experienced EV bettors know the answer to the question: is value betting profitable? They know that value bets can offer either high value or small amounts of value and that if you do your homework properly and your math is on-point, a +EV that may seem insignificant to someone else really does have the potential to boost that bankroll and maximize profits in the long haul.
Now, here’s what you need to know to ace value betting and +EV and make a success of sports betting in the long run. Minimalize your risk and take advantage of all the clear-cut opportunities. All you need to know now is how to do the calculations.
First, let’s start by establishing what a value calculator or an EV betting calculator is used for. There are many different bet calculators, ranging from odds calculators to parlay calculators and hedge calculators. Each one has its own specific and valuable function to enhance your critical betting theory.
One of the critical concepts you need to understand about EV betting is a bet’s relative value. As we’ve established above, any bet with a positive EV can be considered a value bet.
Using a value calculator is an efficient way to find the information you need so you can judge a bet’s value. The value calculator takes a single bet and its probability of success and then ultimately calculates whether that bet will result in profit or loss x100.
The profit value is directly related to the value of the bet.
Most value calculators have the same purpose, requiring you to enter the same types of information.
One piece of information you need to provide a value calculator is the odds related to the bet you’re interested in. With most EV betting calculators, you’ll be able to choose the odds format as we’ll be using American odds where, in Europe, the use of decimal odds is much more prevalent.
So let’s say we want to back the Jets to beat the Cowboys at this weekend’s match at odds of +110. All you do is enter the odds into the designated box or area on the calculator.
No sportsbook really wants you to go this deep into analyzing bets, plus you won’t find a probability list anywhere, so you’ll have to do some good old-fashioned research.
So, as probability translates to the chances of something happening, what will you be looking for during your research expedition?
If you say there is a 77% chance of the Jets beating the Cowboys, you can enter that figure into the area designated for probability. You can click on the “calculate” option to get your value bet results when you’ve done this.
According to our example, the value of the New York Jets v Dallas Cowboys bet at +110 with a probability of around 77% of success is rated at 61.70. Keep in mind that probability is not an exact science. Here, it is up to you to get information of the highest relevance and quality to ensure your probability result is worthwhile. It’s also important to discern between directly relevant data and information that does not really contribute significant relevance when putting together your probability number.
Any positive figure represents a value bet, while any minus figure, represents a bet that is not good value, but what does this number actually mean?
A positive figure represents a value bet (+EV), while any minus figure represents a bet that is usually not worth pursuing. Let’s push a bit further into the realm of value betting and compare positive and negative values.
The first thing to remember is that the purpose of the EV betting calculator is to calculate the long-term value of a bet based on both the odds and the probability of an event’s success. The value bet calculator ultimately shows how often the bet will be successful out of a hundred times.
So, a positive figure translates into a bet that offers value because if the bettor places the bet 100 times, there will be a profit.
In the same breath, a negative figure translates into not as high value and, if the bettor placed that bet the same number of times, they would experience a loss.
Thus, the higher the positive figure, the higher the value of a bet, which equates to a value bet or +EV. As the match, odds, and probability figure changes, so will the outcome, and you will either receive a positive or negative result depending on the information you input. As for the value calculator, it uses the same calculation method every time.
The EV betting calculator is an excellent way to ensure that the bets you decide to make offer you sufficient value for both your returns and your potential success in sports betting. Nonetheless, it is crucial to note that the key to the calculator’s reliability lies in the amount and quality of your research, as this will ultimately ensure the most accurate probability figure possible.
Understanding value betting as well as how to use an expected value betting calculator are some of the key components to long-term success in sports betting. Additionally, understanding that making a success of sports betting requires objectivity and some analytic thinking from your side will bring in the bucks, even if your all-time-favorite team is losing. Betting smart is elevating what you enjoy to learning a new skill, and calculating expected value sports betting is a skill worth investing in.
An EV betting calculator helps you to identify bets that are more profitable and worth your while. It uses several relevant data points to provide an accurate outcome for betting. If you want to find out how it works, we have the perfect explanation and examples right here.
If you want to use one, you need to know the basics about sports betting and the components that are used in the calculation. But you don’t have to worry about that at all, ‘cause we’ve got you covered with all things betting at TheGruelingTruth.com
Positive and negative bet values can, on average, make quite a big difference in the outcome of your bet, depending on which option you choose. Why don’t you take a look at the discussion to put both types into perspective in terms of the EV bet calculator?
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