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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Picking every Bowl game against the spread!

Picking every Bowl game against the spread!

Beating the spread!
Publish Date: 12/16/2016
Fact checked by: Mark Lewis

Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl
North Carolina Central (9-2, 7-0 MEAC) vs. Grambling State (11-1, 10-0 SWAC)
Dec. 17 – 12 p.m., ABC
Georgia Dome, Atlanta

Average Line: Grambling, -15

The difference in this game will be Grambling’s superb quarterback DeVante Kincade. He transferred from Ole Miss and has tossed 28 touchdowns to only three interceptions this season (tops in the FCS), and is third in the FCS in passing efficiency (171.6). Grambling has scored 539 points this season with their high scoring offense and NC Central will have a very hard defending Grambling.



Gildan New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico (8-4, 6-2 MWC) vs. UTSA (6-6, 5-3 C-USA)
Dec. 17 – 2 p.m., ESPN
University Stadium, Albuquerque, N.M.

Average Line: New Mexico, -7

UTSA’s biggest accomplishment was going to College Station and only losing 23-10 to Texas A&M. New Mexico has the best run offense in the country.

Pick: New Mexico(-7)


Las Vegas Bowl Presented by Geico
Houston (9-3, 5-3 AAC) vs. San Diego State (10-3, 6-2 MWC)
Dec. 17 – 3:30 p.m., ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas

Average Line: Houston, -3

This is a great match up as Houston QB Greg Ward battles San Diego State running back Donnell Pumphrey. Houston losing head coach Tom Herman has to have a negative effect.

Pick: SDSU(+3)


Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State (9-3, 7-1 Sun Belt) vs. Toledo (9-3, 6-2 MAC)
Dec. 17 – 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Ala.

Average Line: Toledo, -1

Appalachian State has an excellent defense, and Toledo will counter with a high powered offense. This should be a great matchup. Slight nod to App State in my opinion.

Pick: App State(+1)


AutoNation Cure Bowl
UCF (6-6, 4-4 AAC) vs. Arkansas State (7-5, 7-1 Sun Belt)
Dec. 17 – 5:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

Average Line: UCF, -6

UCF is the feel-good story of the year, UCF was 0-12 last year and has had a remarkable comeback this season. But, the line is just too big. Arkansas State is a good team.

Pick: Arkansas State(+6)


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Mississippi (6-6, 4-4 C-USA) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt)
Dec. 17 – 9 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

Average Line: Southern Miss, -3.5

The Ragin Cajuns are whats wrong with this Bowl system, and Southern Miss is not too far behind them. This might be the toilet bowl of bowl games.

Pick: Southern Miss(-3.5)


Miami Beach Bowl
Central Michigan (6-6, 3-5 MAC) vs. Tulsa (9-3, 6-2 AAC)
Dec. 19 – 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Marlins Park, Miami

Average Line: Tulsa, -11.5

Central Michigan just cannot match up with Tulsa’s potent offense; they will pull away in the second half.

Pick: Tulsa(-11.5)


Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis (8-4, 5-3 AAC) vs. Western Kentucky (10-3, 7-1 C-USA)
Dec. 20 – 7 p.m., ESPN
FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Fla.

Average Line: WKU, -4.5

This should be a high-scoring shootout, both teams have excellent Quarterbacks. Memphis will need to cause turnovers to win this game.

Pick: WKU(-4.5)


San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-5, 6-2 MWC)
Dec. 21 – 9 p.m., ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego

Average Line: BYU, -8.5

BYU has underachieved this year, Wyoming, on the other hand, Wyoming has had their best year since 2011.

Pick: Wyoming(+8.5)


Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Idaho (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs. Colorado State (7-5, 5-3 MWC)
Dec. 22 – 7 p.m., ESPN
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

Average Line: Colorado State, -13.5

Idaho is a tough, gritty team that will be playing at home. They won’t win, but they will cover.

Pick: Idaho(+13.5)


Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Eastern Michigan (7-5, 4-4 MAC) vs. Old Dominion (9-3, 7-1 C-USA)
Dec. 23 – 1 p.m., ESPN
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas

Average Line: Old Dominion, -3.5

Good matchup, now the big question will be who can get motivated to play football while in the Bahamas.

Pick: Eastern Michigan(+3.5)


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Louisiana Tech (8-5, 6-2 C-USA) vs. No. 25 Navy (9-4, 7-1 AAC)
Dec. 23 – 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

Average Line: Navy, -1

If Navy were at full strength, this game would be a mismatch. But they are not.

Pick: Louisiana Tech(+1)


Dollar General Bowl
Ohio (8-5, 6-2 MAC) vs. Troy (9-3, 6-2 Sun Belt)
Dec. 23 – 8 p.m., ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Ala.

Average Line: Troy, -3.5

The difference in this game will be Troy’s run defense; I look for Troy to win by double digits.

Pick: Troy(-3.5)


Hawai’i Bowl
Hawai’i (6-7, 4-4 MWC) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4, 5-3 C-USA)
Dec. 24 – 8 p.m., ESPN
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu

Average Line: Not Available

The Rainbows have a losing record, and the Blue Raiders are a solid team.

Pick: MTSU


St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami (Ohio) (6-6, 6-2 MAC) vs. Mississippi State (5-7, 3-5 SEC)
Dec. 26 – 11 a.m., ESPN
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla.

Average Line: Mississippi State, -12

The Redhawks have won six straight games to get a Bowl invite. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have been hot and cold all year.

Pick: Miami(OH)(+12)


Quick Lane Bowl
Maryland (6-6, 3-6 Big Ten) vs. Boston College (6-6, 2-6 ACC)
Dec. 26 – 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit

Average Line: Maryland, -1.5

Two mediocre teams that probably do not belong in a bowl game. This game is a toss-up, Boston College’s defense has not been as good as expected.

Pick: Maryland(-1.5)

Camping World Independence Bowl
NC State (6-6, 3-5 ACC) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
Dec. 26 – 5 p.m., ESPN2
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, La.

Average Line: NC State, -4

This has the possibility of being the most boring game of the Bowl season. Both teams are great on defense and horrible on offense.

Pick: N.C.State(-4)


Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Army (7-5) vs. North Texas (5-7, 3-5)
Dec. 27 – 12 p.m., ESPN
Cotton Bowl, Dallas

Average Line: Army, -9

Army will run the ball all over North Texas; North Texas may be the worst team out of all the teams during this bowl season.

Pick: Army(-9)


Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
No. 24 Temple (10-3, 7-1 AAC) vs. Wake Forest (6-6, 3-5 ACC)
Dec. 27 – 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Md.

Average Line: Temple, -13

This should be a mismatch; Temple is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Pick: Temple(-13)


National Funding Holiday Bowl
Minnesota (8-4, 5-4 Big Ten) vs. Washington State (8-4, 7-2 Pac-12)
Dec. 27 – 7 p.m., ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego

Average Line: Wazzu, -6.5

Interesting contrast in styles, between Minnesota’s old school smash mouth style of football, and Washington State’s wide-open passing game. Minnesota’s defensive backs have never seen a passing game like Washington State’s and will wear down as the game enter’s the fourth quarter.

Pick: Wazzu(-6.5)


Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Boise State (10-2, 6-2 MWC)  vs. Baylor (6-6, 3-6 Big 12)
Dec. 27 – 10:15 p.m., ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix

Average Line: Boise State, -7.5

Baylor lost their last six games of the season, don’t look for them to end that streak here.

Pick: Boise State(-7.5)


New Era Pinstripe Bowl
No. 23 Pittsburgh (8-4, 5-3 ACC) vs. Northwestern (6-6, 5-4 Big Ten)
Dec. 28 – 2 p.m., ESPN
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y.

Average Line: Pitt, -5.5

The Panthers are a solid team was some impressive wins this year. The Wildcats have played teams like Ohio State very tough. This could be an excellent game.

Pick: Pitt(-5.5)


Russell Athletic Bowl
No. 16 West Virginia (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) vs. Miami (8-4, 5-3 ACC)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

Average Line: Miami, -3

No teams was as streaky as the Hurricanes, they won their first four games in a row, and their last four games. In between, they had a four-game losing streak. West Virginis was a surprise team and the only team in the Big 12 that played any defense at all.

Pick: Miami(-3)


Foster Farms Bowl
Indiana (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten) vs. No. 19 Utah (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12)
Dec. 28 – 8:30 p.m., Fox
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.

Average Line: Utah, -8

Utah has been the most consistent program in the Pac 12 over the last five years. Indiana just fired coach Kevin Wilson, how will that affect the team?

Pick: Utah(-8)


AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Texas A&M vs. Kansas State
Dec. 28 – 9 p.m., ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston

Average Line: TAMU, -2

Kansas State’s has an excellent defense, and the Aggies have a very good defense. I will go with Coach Snyder.

Pick: Kansas State(+2)


Birmingham Bowl
South Florida (10-2, 7-1 AAC) vs. South Carolina (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
Dec. 29 – 2 p.m., ESPN
Legion Field, Birmingham, Ala.

Average Line: USF, -10.5

South Florida flew under the radar this year, and the Gamecocks were not very good. This seems like a no-brainer.

Pick: USF(-10.5)


Belk Bowl
Arkansas (7-5, 3-5 SEC) vs. No. 22 Virginia Tech (9-4, 6-2 ACC)
Dec. 29 – 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

Average Line: Virginia Tech, -7

Virginia Tech has been in the bottom of the top 25 all year. Arkansas has been as inconsistent as any team in the country this year.

Pick: Virginia Tech(-7)


Valero Alamo Bowl
No. 12 Oklahoma State (9-3, 7-2 Big 12) vs. No. 10 Colorado (10-3, 8-1 Pac-12)
Dec. 29 – 9 p.m., ESPN
Alamodome, San Antonio

Average Line: Colorado, -3

This should be a great football game. Maon Rudolph the Cowboys QB will be the key for Oklahoma State. Rudolph will be facing a very good Colorado defense, but as Washington showed the Buffalos defense has trouble with high-powered passing games.

Pick: Oklahoma State(+3)


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Georgia (7-5, 4-4 SEC) vs. TCU (6-6, 4-5 Big 12)
Dec. 30 – 12 p.m., ESPN
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tenn.

Average Line: UGA, -1

With RB Nick Chubb the Bulldogs have a shot against any team. The problem is the Bulldogs offensive line has been terrible this year. The Horned Frogs will win this game.

Pick: TCU(+1)


Hyundai Sun Bowl
No. 18 Stanford (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12) vs. North Carolina (8-4, 5-3 ACC)
Dec. 30 – 2 p.m., CBS
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Average Line: Stanford, -3.5

This is a game you won’t want to miss! This game has two men that could be big time factors on Sunday afternoons in the future. Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey and UNC QB Mitch Trubisky.

Pick: Stanford(-3.5)


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nebraska (9-3, 6-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 21 Tennessee (8-4, 4-4 SEC)
Dec. 30 – 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.

Average Line: Tennessee, -3

Nebraska and Tennessee are legendary programs, the difference in this game could be the fact that Tennessee is playing a home game.



Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl
South Alabama (6-6, 2-6 Sun Belt) vs. Air Force (9-3, 5-3 MWC)
Dec. 30 – 5:30 p.m., Campus Insiders
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Ariz.

Average Line: Air Force, -13

Air Force had a good enough season that they should not be this game. There is a reason that this game is not on a regular television channel. South Alabama is not very good; this will be a blowout.

Pick: Air Force(-13)


Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 6 Michigan (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) vs. No. 11 Florida State (9-3, 5-3 ACC)
Dec. 30 – 8 p.m., ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

Average Line: Michigan, -7

Great matchup, Florida State’s offensive line will be the difference in this game and not in a good way.

Pick: Michigan(-7)


Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
No. 20 LSU (7-4, 5-3 SEC) vs. No. 13 Louisville (9-3, 7-1 ACC)
Dec. 31 – 11 a.m., ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

Average Line: LSU, -3.5

One of the best matchups of this bowl season. I do not see LSU being capable of scoring enough points to win this game.

Pick: Louisville(+3.5)


TaxSlayer Bowl
Georgia Tech (8-4, 4-4 ACC) vs. Kentucky (7-5, 4-4 SEC)
Dec. 31 – 11 a.m., ESPN
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Fla.

Average Line: Georgia Tech, -3.5

UK has not been good against the run this year, so the Yellow Jackets are not a good matchup for them.

Pick: Georgia Tech(-3.5)


College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 4 Washington (12-1, 8-1 Pac-12) vs. No. 1 Alabama (13-0, 8-0 SEC)
Dec. 31 – 3 p.m., ESPN
Georgia Dome, Atlanta

Average Line: Alabama, -16

Washington is too good to be a 16 point underdog to anybody. The Huskies are big up front on the defensive line and very fast in the secondary, Jalen Hurts will have his biggest challenge of the year against the talented Huskies. Not picking this game yet, but 16 points is just too much.

Pick: Washington(+16)


College Football Playoff semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 3 Ohio State (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Clemson (12-1, 7-1 ACC)
Dec. 31 – 7 p.m., ESPN
The university of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

Average Line: Ohio State, -3.5

This is a great matchup of two well coached talented teams. I will take the Buckeyes because of a superior defense.

Pick: Ohio State(-3.5)


Outback Bowl
No. 17 Florida (8-4, 6-2 SEC) vs. Iowa (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten)
Jan. 2 – 1 p.m., ABC
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

Average Line: Florida, -2.5

Two bad offenses against two solid defenses. Iowa finished the year strong after a slow start; the Hawkeyes are better on offense, so I am leaning towards the Hawkeyes.

Pick: Iowa(+2.5)


Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 15 Western Michigan (13-0, 8-0 MAC) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (10-3, 7-2 Big Ten)
Jan. 2 – 1 p.m., ESPN
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Average Line: Wisconsin, -7.5

Wisconsin is way too big of a favorite here, Western Michigan has a great coach and are a very talented team. Wisconsin’s weakness is in the defensive back field and Western Michigan has a big-time QB and WR.

Pick: Western Michigan(7.5)


Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual
No. 9 USC (9-3, 7-2 Pac-12) vs. No. 5 Penn State (11-2, 8-1 Big Ten)
Jan. 2 – 5 p.m., ESPN
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

Average Line: USC, -7

USC is the hottest team in the nation; Penn State is a great story and a great second halt team. USC is not Wisconsin, if they get down 28-7 to USC they will be done.

Pick: USC(-7)


Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 14 Auburn (8-4, 5-3 SEC) vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (10-2, 9-0 Big 12)
Jan. 2 – 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

Average Line: Oklahoma, -4

Auburn does not deserve to be in this game, and Oklahoma deserves to have a better opponent.

Pick: Oklahoma(-4)


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