College Football Week 5 Beating the Spread

Beating the spread!
EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 25: Oregon Ducks DT Keyon Ware-Hudson (95) reacts after making a tackle for a loss during a PAC-12 conference football game between the Oregon Ducks and Arizona Wildcats on September 25, 2021 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Two great weeks in a row runs our record against the spread to 26-16.

No. 5 Iowa (-3.5) at Maryland (8 p.m., FS1)

Maryland is a surprise team so far this year, but this will be their first actual test. Iowa is undefeated, and they do it with a defense that has not allowed more than 17 points in a single game. Look for Taulia Tagovailoa to have a good enough game that Maryland covers the spread, and don’t be surprised if they win the game. Iowa struggles on offense, and this will be a close game. Pick Maryland +3.5

No. 13 BYU (-8.5) at Utah State (9 p.m., CBSSN)

Utah State tends to turn the ball over, but they also can put a lot of points up in a hurry. BYU is on a roll. Jaren Hall might return this week, and if he does, I take BYU; the points are problematic in this one. Pick BYU -8.5

No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (-18.5) (noon, ESPN)

The razorback’s turnaround this season has been nothing short of amazing. I think Arkansas’s luck runs out here, but they will cover. Pick Arkansas +18.5

No. 14 Michigan at Wisconsin (-0.5) (noon, FOX)

Michigan is a dominant run team that struggles to throw the ball. Wisconsin’s offense is anemic, but their defense is outstanding. Can Michigan establish the run against Wisconsin? That will be the key. Pick Wisconsin -0.5

No. 7 Cincinnati (-2.5) at No. 9 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m. NBC)

This, to me, is the game of the week, and the outcome will be dependent on if Cincinnati starts strong. The Cats evened struggled for a half against Murray State. Desmond Ridder will get this done and put Cincy into a serious College Football Playoff conversation.

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS) 

Expect a shootout between Bryce Young and Matt Corral, which makes this a fun game to watch. I think Mississippi will give the Tide a run for their money. Pick Ole Miss +14.5

No. 3 Oregon (-8.5) at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Stanford has not been consistent this year, while Oregon has played as well as any team in the country this season. Pick Oregon -8.5

No. 6 Oklahoma (-10.5) at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., FOX)

The Sooners have struggled so far this season, and I am betting they will struggle again this weekend on the road. Pick Oklahoma -10.5

No. 11 Ohio State (-15.5) at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN)

Rutgers has been a surprise team in the Big Ten this season, but after last week’s close loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes will not take Rutgers lightly. The Buckeyes are about to make a statement. Pick Ohio State -15.5

No. 10 Florida (-8.5) at Kentucky (6 p.m., ESPN)

Kentucky has been on a roll so far this season against less than stellar competition. Florida is a National Title contender. There are levels to this, and these teams are on different levels, but the levels may be getting closer to each other. Gators win a close one. Pick Kentucky +8.5

No. 21 Baylor at No. 19 Oklahoma State (-3.5) (7 p.m., ESPN2)

Baylor got beaten up last year by Oklahoma State, and they have to remember that. The Bears got a huge win over Iowa State last week and are playing well. The Cowboys have won three one-score games this season, and Baylor is looking for revenge. Pick Baylor +3.5

Indiana at No. 4 Penn State (-10.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)

The Hoosiers coming off last year’s momentum seemed ready to have another big season and solidify themselves as one of the upper-echelon teams in the Big Ten, but that has not been the case. On the other hand, Penn State is rolling with a stout defense and one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Sean Clifford. Pick Penn State -10.5

Western Kentucky at No. 17 Michigan State (-9.5) (7:30 p.m., BTN)

Last week, the Hilltoppers gave Indiana a scare, and the Spartans got lucky to beat an improving Nebraska. The problem for the Hilltoppers is that run defense is terrible, which leads me to think the Spartans will cover this spread. Pick Michigan State -9.5

Boston College at No. 25 Clemson (-15.5) (7:30 p.m., ACCN)

Everybody wants to play Clemson at this point in the season, and undefeated Boston College has to be chomping at the bit for this game. I have seen nothing that makes me think this point spread is in line with reality. Pick Boston College 15.5

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