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College Football beating the Spread: Conference Championship weekend

Championship weekend!
STILLWATER, OK - OCTOBER 02: Baylor Bears quarterback Gerry Bohanon (11) behind the line against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on October 2, 2021 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Last week ats, and overall against the spread for the year we are 71-52

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No 14 Utah (-2.5) vs. No. 10 Oregon (8 p.m., ABC) 

Utah won easily two weeks ago at home, but this will be a neutral site game, and you have to figure the Ducks will be ready this time. Utah dominated the line of scrimmage in the previous matchup. The running game decided the last game as Utah gashed the Ducks for over 200 years rushing. I look for this to be a much closer game this time around. Pick Utah -2.5

No. 5 Oklahoma State (-3.5) vs. No. 9 Baylor (noon, ABC)

Oklahoma State beat the Bears 24-14 earlier in the season. The Cowboys still have a shot at making the College Playoffs with a win in this game. This will be a close game and should go down to the wire. Don’t be surprised if Baylor wins this straight up! Pick Baylor +3.5

No. 1 Georgia (-6.5) vs. No. 4 Alabama (4 p.m., CBS)

This is the Bulldogs year. You would think so, especially how the Tide has struggled in the last month or so. The Bulldogs allow less than 7 points per game, and the offense has been much better in the last half of the season. The other issue here is that Alabama has played a more demanding schedule, and the Bulldogs have not been involved in a close game since a week one win over Clemson. What happens if Georgia finds themselves in a close game? Bama has not been consistently good throughout an entire game in quite a while. I will take the Bulldogs to breakthrough finally. Pick Georgia +6.5

No. 3 Cincinnati (-10.5) vs. No. 16 Houston (4 p.m., ABC) 

Houston has scored over 30 points in each of their last eight games, and they are maybe the most underrated team in the country. The Bearcats, with a win, should clinch a playoff berth, but that task will not be easy. The points here scare me a lot. While I think Houston is a top 15 team, the Bearcats are one of the very best teams in the country. Pick Cincinnati -10.5

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No. 17 Pitt (-3.5) vs. No. 18 Wake Forest (8 p.m., ABC) 

This is an outstanding offensive matchup between two elite college quarterbacks in Pitt’s Kenny Pickett (4,066 yards, 40 TDs, 7 INTs) and Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman (3,711 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs). This will be a high-scoring game, and I like Pitt to pull it out and cover the spread! Pick Pitt -3.5

No. 2 Michigan (-10.5) vs. No. 15 Iowa (8 p.m., FOX)

This will be a physical battle, and points could be at a premium. Michigan is coming off an enormous win, and you have to wonder how that will affect them. In what I think will be a low scoring game, the point spread is too big. Pick Iowa +10.5

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