Publish Date: 02/22/2019
Fact checked by: Simon Briffa
The break was hard to deal with for some, but Thursday night saw the return of NBA game-play.
Friday night hosts a plethora of great games. Let’s check in with Heritage Sportsbook then look at some lines to help us breakdown the matchups.
Time: 7 PM ET, Line: Raptors -10
Let’s start by saying that despite being one of the best teams in the league, the Toronto Raptors are one of the worst teams against the point spread. Currently, at 25-33-1 ATS, they are just 43.1 percent … which is a long way off of being a profitable team to bet on.
The San Antonio Spurs aren’t solid gold, but they are 52.5 percent (31-28-0) which is close to breaking even for better. Generally speaking, you need to hit 53 or 54 percent to start seeing any profits.
The first thing that jumps out at me is this 10-point spread. San Antonio has a top-10 road offense. They put up almost 111 points per game as the visiting squad and right now they are not in bad shape with injuries or anything of that sort to justify such a heavy spread. The Spurs are coming off a one-and-four skid leading up to the All-Star Break. But they ended the four-game losing streak with a win in Memphis.
Now with a full week off for both teams … any previous winning or losing momentum is completely negated. Statistically speaking, the Raps are a little better on both sides of the ball. But the way these two teams matchup, the Spurs always play them well. In fact, San Antonio holds a 7-3 advantage over the last 10 games and has also won two of the last three. The Raptors lost to San An 125 to 107 last month. And the last time they played in Toronto, the Raptors only won by three points 86-83 against a Kawhi-less Spurs squad.
Will the Raptors win the game? Most likely, yes. But by 11 points? Doubtful. I am backing the Spurs to get the backdoor cover on the road in Toronto.
Take the Spurs +10.
Time: 8:30 PM, Line: Nuggets -5
This is an interesting game. I want to hop on and say that the Nuggets will cover the -5, but a four or five-point spread is always difficult because it’s the perfect number for final second foul and free throw strategy to mess up.
Defensively these two teams are nearly equal. The Nuggets allow 107.1 per game and the Mavs allow 108.74. But the Nuggets drop a little over five points per game on average against their opponents (112.00 vs. 108.7). But when we factor in home vs. away numbers the Mavericks actually have a near three-point advantage on offense and three-point-plus advantage on defense. The Nuggets allow 109.93 on the road against the Mavs 106.28 home D. So, immediately we see that at home, the Mavericks area actually almost 7 points better. Now when we see that the Nuggets are five-point favorites, we have a 12-point swing.
Denver is 6-4 against Dallas, straight up over the last 10 games, but Dallas is 6-4 ATS in that same period. The average score over 10 games is 105 to 104 in favor of the Nuggets. And the last time the Nuggets played in Dallas, they lost 107 to 118. Plus the nuggets are just 26% against the spread as away favorites. Conversely, the Mavericks are 69% against the spread as the home team, 83.3% (10-2) as a home underdog, 66.7% after a loss, and 78.6% (11-3) after multiple days off.
The more I look at this game, the more I like the Mavericks to cover. Take the home dogs to cover +5.