The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / NBA Playoffs: Thursday, Game 3 Prediction for Sixers vs. Nets

NBA Playoffs: Thursday, Game 3 Prediction for Sixers vs. Nets

76ers vs. Nets preview
Source: The New Yorker

Round 1 of the 2019 NBA Playoffs just keeps getting better and better!

It looked like the San Antonio Spurs were going to get another backdoor cover on Tuesday. That is until Murry took over in the fourth and spoiled the day for Pop and the Spurs. After falling behind to the Thunder in the Rose Garden (Moda Center), the Portland Trail Blazers locked it down in the 3rd quarter to go up two games to none and hang on to home-court advantage in the series. And … Doc and the Clippers pulled of the unexpected, yanking a game from the Warriors at Oracle Arena during Game 2 of their series.

And now on Thursday, we have three great games to choose from. If you are looking to bet the NBA Playoffs this season, be sure to have a look at this Bookmaker Review to compare your options.

One game looks particularly valuable, so let’s check it out!

76ers vs. Nets | 8 PM @ Barclays Center

After thoroughly spanking the 76ers in Game 1 and then taking them to OT in Game 2, the Nets get to go home to Brooklyn to see if they can’t take another off of the previously favored team.

With Jared Dudley expected to be back, the Nets will have a bit more depth down low. I have to say, the Nets are a surprise, and in this situation, they are live dogs. The betting lines for this game opened up with the Philadelphia 76ers as -2.5 favorites. But since opening, the line has already been bet up a point. Now the Net’s are sitting as +3.5-point underdogs, and you can find them as low as +290 (nearly 3-1) at particular sportsbooks.

This is an incredible value on a team that has won once already and pushed Philly to the brink in the other. The atmosphere at Barclays Center will be electric, and as talented as this young 76ers team is, they are young and don’t have a whole lot of playoff experience. They may still take this series, but Game 3 is going to be an adjustment period for them.

Let’s look at the numbers.

  • Philly puts up 112.12 points per game on the road
  • Brooklyn puts up 113.83 points per game at home
  • Philly allows 114.78 points per game on the road
  • Brooklyn allows 11.29 points per game at home

Brooklyn clips slightly better from three-point land while at home than the 76ers do on the road. But other than that, they are quite comparable when it comes to field goal percentage, free throws, and total rebounds.

So when we consider the roughly 4-point home advantage and the fact that this is going to be an incredible atmosphere to play in, I’m taking the Nets to both cover the point spread and win. Wait it out a bit and see if you can get the nets at +4 to 4.5 and then put a unit on the spread, and just underneath a unit on the money line. That way, if they cover but lose by a couple of points, you break even.

If you want to play it safe, just take the Brooklyn Nets to get the backdoor cover. But this will be about timing. Make sure to watch the lines and the consensus to buy in as high as possible before it starts to swing back the other way (+3.5 or better).

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