Toronto Raptors (36-29) meet New Orleans Pelicans (22-45) on 11 March with enough moving parts to reward a closer look. The last-five margins, 1 and -1, offer a cleaner signal than the record alone.
This is a matchup that rewards patience, especially if the first quarter is a feeling-out stretch. For spread/total updates later, use
TGT NBA lines.
At Smoothie King Center, the scheduled start is 7:00 pm US/Central and Gulf Coast Sports is the TV listing. Once the game settles, the matchup questions from the first two paragraphs are the ones that decide it.
Latest Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans Odds – Moneylines, Spreads & Over/Unders
Toronto Raptors start as 2.5-point listed favourites at Smoothie King Center. The usual separators are turnovers, rebounding, and who hits threes without giving them back. The total sits at an inflated total of 235.5, suggesting a game where possessions and scoring can stack up. The total has fallen 3.5 from the opener, a move that can hint toward an Under look. From the opener, the line has slid 3.5 points toward Toronto Raptors, which can suggest early support for the listed favourite.
Money Line-130+115
Spread
2.5
-105
-2.0
-108
Over/Under
-110
-110
Note: The odds table above updates dynamically. The written odds breakdown reflects the numbers at the moment it was generated, so the table and text can be different if the market moves.
Our Against the Spread Choice is New Orleans Pelicans
We are backing New Orleans Pelicans ATS. Toronto Raptors at 20% versus New Orleans Pelicans at 60% is the cleanest cover split, and it tilts about 40% toward one side. With the posted number that means take the points.
ATS stat
Toronto Raptors
New Orleans Pelicans
Season ATS record (W-L-P)
32-32-0
37-29-0
Season ATS
50%
60%
Last 5 ATS record
1-4-0
3-2-0
Last 5 ATS
20%
60%
Head-to-head ATS record
0-0-0
0-0-0
Head-to-head ATS
–
–
Our Over/Under Choice is Under
Slight lean Under at 235.5. The combined split we are using is 55% toward Under, and that is enough to treat it as more than a coin flip.
Over/Under stat
Toronto Raptors
New Orleans Pelicans
Season Over/Under record
25-39
35-31
Season Over
40%
50%
Last 5 Over/Under record
1-4-0
4-1-0
Last 5 Over
20%
80%
Head-to-head Over/Under record
0-0-0
0-0-0
Head-to-head Over
–
–
NBA Head-To-Head History: Key Stats
So far this season, a single meeting has been played between Raptors and Pelicans; that game saw Pelicans winning 138-100.
Meetings This Season
1
Last Meeting Score
138-100
Last Meeting Winner
Pelicans
Last Meeting Margin
38
Raptors Vs Pelicans Record
0 – 1
Raptors Vs Pelicans Total Points
227.4 – 227.4
Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans: Recent Form & Momentum
If you want a scoreboard-first read, start with what each team scores and what each team gives up. New Orleans Pelicans have been scoring more per game in the last 10. New Orleans Pelicans have been allowing more points per game in that same span. New Orleans Pelicans have won about 50% more often than Toronto Raptors across the last 10. That is a solid way to label the last 10 form leader. Net points per game is points per game minus points allowed per game.
Recent form (Last 10)
Toronto Raptors
New Orleans Pelicans
Record
4-6
6-4
Win rate
40%
60%
Points per game
109.8
120.6
Points allowed per game
109
118.8
Net points per game
+0.8
+1.8
Point differential (Last 10 total)
+8
+18
Field goal %
47%
47.8%
3PT %
34.1%
33.3%
Five games can swing quickly, so the safest read is to look for a clear gap in results or average margin. Toronto Raptors are 2-3, and New Orleans Pelicans are 2-3. The last five have leaned toward Toronto Raptors on average margin, which often shows up in who controls the late possessions.
Momentum form (Last 5)
Toronto Raptors
New Orleans Pelicans
Wins (Last 5)
2
2
Losses (Last 5)
3
3
Win rate (Last 5)
40%
40%
Average margin (Last 5)
+1
-1
Injury List Toronto Raptors & New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans comes in with the cleaner injury picture, which matters because fewer absences usually mean a steadier rotation and fewer late adjustments. Toronto Raptors has more uncertainty around availability, so this game may ask more from its depth and secondary pieces.
The spot also looks a little cleaner for New Orleans Pelicans, whether that edge comes from rest, workload, or travel. If Toronto Raptors is the team dealing with the tighter turnaround, heavier mileage, or busier recent stretch, that can show up in pace, legs, and late-game execution.
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