Series Preview: Marlins at Rockies

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The Rockies will begin a 3 game series on June 22, 2018 against the Marlins at Coors Field in Denver, CO.

The Rockies will enter the series with a 37-38 record.  They are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they are currently on a 3 game winning streak.  The Rockies are only 14-20 at home, but they are 12-8 against NL East teams this season.

The Marlins will enter the series with a 29-46 record.  They are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they are currently on a 2 game losing streak.  The Marlins are 15-25 on the road and 12-14 against NL West teams this season.

Team Hitting:

The Marlins are currently last in the MLB in HR’s at only 56 on the season.  They are 26th in the MLB in OBP at .304 and they are 29th in runs scored at 266.

The Rockies are currently 9th in the MLB in HR’s at 93.  They are 14th in OBP at .320 and they are 6th in runs scored at 353.

As a team, the Marlins have a struck out 653 times and they have walked 220 times.  Conversely, the Rockies have struck out 659 times, but they have 242 walks.

Team Pitching:

The Rockies starting pitchers have given them 417.2 IP this season, which qualifies for 7th in the MLB.  The Marlins starting pitchers have only given them 380.1 IP, which puts them in 28th place.  As the Marlins starters do not give them length, they are 2nd in the league in total bullpen IP at 291.2.  The Rockies are 20th at 250.0 bullpen IP.

ERA is similar for both starting staffs.  The Marlins rank 23rd at 4.73 and the Rockies rank 24th at 4.85.  Both teams also have similar bullpen ERA’s.  The Marlins are 27th in the league at 4.91.  The Rockies are completely last at 5.65.

Game 1: June 22, 2018 @ 6:40 MT

Jon Gray will get the start for the Rockies and Wei-Yin Chen will get the start for the Marlins.

Jon Gray

Gray is 6-7 on the season with a 5.89 ERA.  He has struggled in the month of June with a 1-1 record and a 6.75 ERA.  In his 3 June starts, he has only given the Rockies 16 IP, so the bullpen has to stay ready when he takes the mound.

Only three Marlins hitters have 5 AB’s or more against Gray.  J.T. Realmuto is 0-5 with 1 RBI.  Justin Bour is hitting .167 in 6 AB’s.  Derek Dietrich is 5-10 with 1 RBI.

As Gray has struggled to go deep into starts this year, we suggested a solution for the Rockies.  In a previous article, we advised the Rockies to move Gray to the bullpen to work out on his confidence and command.

There has been only one start on the season in which Gray did not walk a batter.  He has walked 3 or more batters in 5 games this season. This suggested move to the bullpen would only be for the 2018 season and he would return to his Ace role in 2019.

Wei-Yin Chen

Chen is 2-3 on the season with a 5.91 ERA.  He holds a 1.62 WHIP and has a 33-23 strikeout to walk ratio.  Although he pitched a quality start in his last outing, he failed to complete 5 innings in his previous 3 starts.

Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu and Ian Desmond are the only Rockies with at least 5 AB’s against Chen.  Arenado is hitting .333 with 1 RBI in 6 AB’s.  Blackmon is hitting .200 with 1 HR and 1 RBI in 5 AB’s.  Desmond is hitting .250 with 1 RBI in 8 AB’s.  LeMahieu is hitting .200 with 0 RBI in 5 AB’s.

Chen has only pitched into the 6th inning in 4 of his 10 starts.  He has only completed 6 innings in 2 of his 10 starts.  As both starters do not have a track record of going deep into games, this game may come down to which teams bullpen outdoes the other.

Game 2: June 23, 2018 @ 1:10 MT

Tyler Anderson will get the start for the Rockies and Trevor Richards will get the start for the Marlins.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson is 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA in 15 starts.  In the month of June he is 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA in 4 starts.  Within those 4 starts, he has completed 7.0 IP twice and failed to complete 6 innings in the other two starts.

The Marlins do not have a lot of prior experience against Anderson.  Miguel Rojas and Realmuto have the most experience with 4 AB’s each.  Rojas has a .200 AVG and Realmuto has a .000 AVG.

The Marlins are 9-12 against left-handed pitching this season.

Trevor Richards

Richards is a right-handed rookie and he is 1-4 on the season.  He owns a 5.45 ERA in 8 starts on the season.  So far in 3 June starts, he is 1-2 with a 6.28 ERA in only 14.1 IP.  In his last start he allowed 6 ER’s in 3.1 IP.

Richards features a 91.0 mph fastball that he throws 58.9% of the time.  He also throws an 80.1 mph curveball 18.1% of the time and an 82.6 mph changeup 23.0% of the time.

The Rockies hitters do not have any prior experience against Richards.  The Rockies are 23-24 as a team against right-handed pitching this season.

Game 3: June 24, 2018 @ 1:10 MT

German Marquez will get the start for the Rockies and Caleb Smith will get the start for the Marlins.

German Marquez

Marquez is 5-7 on the season with a 5.20 ERA in 15 starts.  He has struggled in the month of June to a 1-2 record with a 7.77 ERA.  Although he has struggled, he has given the Rockies length in games.  He has thrown 22 innings this month, including going 6.0 IP in 3 of his 4 starts.

Rojas and Dietrich are the only Marlins batters with at least 5 AB’s against Marquez.  Dietrich owns a .200 AVG with 1 RBI in 5 AB’s.  Rojas owns a .200 AVG with 0 RBI in 5 AB’s.

Caleb Smith

Smith is 5-6 on the season with a 4.03 ERA in 15 starts.  He has also struggled in June pitching to a 1-1 record with a 5.49 ERA in 4 starts.  He has only completed 6.0 IP in 1 of his 4 starts this month.

In Smith’s last start, he pitched 4.0 innings against the Giants.  He allowed 6 H’s, 2 BB’s and 4 ER’s.

Smith features a 93.0 mph fastball, an 81.7 mph slurve, and an 83.9 mph changeup.

Nolan Arenado

Over the last 7 games, Arenado holds a .414 AVG with 4 HR’s, 5 2B’s and 14 RBI’s.  Arenado has also scored 9 R’s to go with a 1.438 OPS in that time span.  No player in the MLB has had more H’s, scored more R’s or accumulated more RBI over the last 7 days.

What do the Rockies need to do to win this series?

In order for the Rockies to win this series two games out of three, or for them to sweep the series, they will need to get into the Marlins bullpen early.  The Marlins have their own struggles in the bullpen, so the Rockies should be able to put up a lot of runs in this series.

Conversely, the Rockies starters need to give them length in order to be successful.  The Rockies bullpen showed signs of getting things back on track against the Mets over the last 4 days.  However, if the bullpen continues to be overused, they may not be able to sustain the recent success.

Do you think the Rockies will be able to win back-to-back home series?

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