Series Preview: Diamondbacks at Rockies

Who’s Ready for an NL West Rivalry Matchup?

The Colorado Rockies will begin a three game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 10th.  After a quick three game road trip to Seattle, the Rockies will return home.  The Rockies went 2-1 on the quick road trip against a very good American League team.

The Competitive NL West

Before we get into the projected pitching matchups for this series, let’s first look at what will be going on within the NL West.  The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off with the Padres in a four game series in San Diego.  The Giants will face off with the Chicago Cubs in a three game series in San Francisco.

The Diamondbacks are currently in first place.  They are 1.0 games ahead of the Dodgers.  The Rockies and the San Francisco Giants are 3.5 games behind the Diamondbacks.  The Padres are in last place in the NL West at 11.5 games behind the Diamondbacks.

Game 1 | Arizona @ Colorado | July 10, 2018 | 6:40 MT

Patrick Corbin will take the mound for the Diamondbacks and Tyler Anderson will take the mound for the Rockies.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin is having a great season for the Diamondbacks.  The soon to be free agent is 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 18 starts.  His FIP is an outstanding 2.78 and he holds a 4.67 strikeout to walk ratio.

DJ LeMahieu has hit very well in his 44 plate appearances against the left-handed Corbin.  He holds a .419 OBP with 7 XBH’s and 7 RBI.  He also has a 1.244 OPS against the lefty.

Although Corbin has only featured 3 pitches in his first five MLB seasons, he has expanded to a 4th pitch this season.  His 4th pitch is a curveball that he uses 11.4% of the time this season.  He throws the curveball 73.3 mph on average.  He also uses a 90.5 mph fastball 49.2% of the time, an 81.5 mph slider 38.1% of the time, and an 81.0 mph changeup 1.3% of the time.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson is 6-3 on the season with a 3.90 ERA in 18 starts.  He holds a 4.22 FIP and a 2.85 SO/W ratio.

Anderson was outstanding in his last two starts.  In both starts, he went 8.0 IP with 0 earned runs.  As these starts both came against teams in the NL West, the Rockies hope he has another gem in his pocket for the Diamondbacks.

Paul Goldschmidt holds a .625 OBP against Anderson in 16 career plate appearances.  Although he only has 1 XBH, he is 3-9 with 7 BB’s, 0 HR, and 0 RBI.  Even though Jake Lamb is a left-handed hitter, he holds a .375 OBP in 16 plate appearances against Anderson.  He is 4-13 with 1 BB, 1 HR, and 4 RBI.

This season, Anderson features a fastball 46.9% of the time, a cutter 26.1% of the time, a curveball 3.5% of the time, and a changeup 23.5% of the time.  Anderson has averaged 91.7 mph with his fastball, 87.3 mph with his cutter, 74.7 mph with his curveball, and 81.0 mph with his changeup.

Game 2 | Arizona @ Colorado | July 11, 2018 | 6:40 MT

Shelby Miller will take the mound for the Diamondbacks and German Marquez will take the mound for the Rockies.

Shelby Miller

Miller is 0-3 on the season in 3 starts.  Through 14 innings pitched in those starts he has allowed 14 earned runs.  He has also allowed 20 hits and 5 walks in those 14 innings.

The Diamondbacks traded a lot to get Miller and he has not produced through any of his 3 seasons with Arizona.  In 27 starts, he is 5-17 with a 6.11 ERA and a 4.71 FIP.  Arizona traded Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte, and Aaron Blair to the Braves to get Miller, so they definitely had higher expectations than how he has performed thus far.

LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon, and Carlos Gonzalez all have great career numbers against Miller.  LeMahieu holds a .500 OBP in 22 plate appearances with 2 XBH’s and 3 RBI.  Blackmon holds a .360 OBP in 25 plate appearances with 3 XBH’s and 3 RBI.  Gonzalez holds a .476 OBP in 21 plate appearances with 4 XBH’s and 4 RBI.

This season, Miller uses a 94.4 mph fastball 63.3% of the time.  He also adds in a 79.7 mph curveball 22.2% of the time, an 89.9 mph cutter 14.2% of the time, and an 88.0 changeup 0.4% of the time.

German Marquez

Marquez is 7-8 on the season with a 4.92 ERA in 18 starts.  He holds a 4.45 FIP and a 2.80 SO/W ratio.

In his last start, he pitched 6.0 innings only allowing 1 earned run.  He pitched 8.0 innings in his last start, also only allowing 1 earned run.  In both starts, he did not walk a batter.  He has had four starts this season in which he did not allow a walk and the Rockies have won all four of those games.

Similar to Anderson, Marquez has a tough time against Lamb and Goldschmidt.  Lamb holds a .333 OBP in 24 career plate appearances with 2 XBH’s and 3 RBI.  Goldschmidt holds a .650 OBP in 20 career plate appearances with 5 XBH’s (3 HR’s) and 6 RBI.

Marquez throws a fastball 57.1% of the time, a slider 13.7% of the time, a curveball 22.6% of the time, and a changeup 6.6% of the time.  He averages 95.1 mph with his fastball, 85.4 mph with his slider, 80.7 mph with his curveball, and 85.8 mph with his changeup.  In his last two starts, Marquez has been able to retain his fastball velocity through the end of his appearances by throwing over his fastball mph average.

Game 3 | Arizona @ Colorado | July 12, 2018 | 1:10 MT

Zack Godley will take the mound for the Diamondbacks and Kyle Freeland will take the mound for the Rockies.

Zack Godley

On the season, Godley is 10-6 with a 4.80 ERA in 19 games pitched.  He holds a 4.41 FIP and a 1.94 SO/W ratio.  Although his last start came on July 6th, he pitched an inning of relief on July 8th in a game in which the Diamondbacks went 15 innings against the Padres.

Blackmon and Gerardo Parra have the best career numbers against Godley compared to their teammates.  Blackmon holds a .538 OBP with 2 XBH’s and 2 RBI.  Parra holds a .500 OBP with 4 hits and 2 HBP’s.

This season, Godley throws a 90.0 mph fastball 32.3% of the time.  He also throws an 81.6 mph curveball (40.4%), an 88.9 mph cutter (22.4%), and an 81.3 mph changeup (4.8%).  His velocity is down on each pitch compared to his career averages.  Godley is 28 years old in his 4th MLB season.

Kyle Freeland

Freeland is 8-6 on the season with a 3.18 ERA in 18 starts.  He holds a 4.12 FIP and a 2.38 SO/W ratio.

Freeland’s slow start to the season may have cost him an All-Star selection.  In his first 6 starts, he went 1-4 with a 4.24 ERA in 34.0 innings pitched.  Since then, he is 7-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 76.1 innings pitched over 12 starts.  The numbers over his last 12 starts are definitely All-Star worthy.

Goldschmidt is the only Diamondbacks player with at least 10 plate appearances against Freeland.  He holds a .500 OBP with 1 XBH and 1 RBI.  A.J. Pollock has 7 career PA’s against Freeland with a .571 OBP and Ketel Marte holds a .750 OBP in 4 PA’s.

This season, Freeland features a 91.2 mph fastball, an 85.1 mph cutter, an 85.8 mph changeup, and a 79.8 mph slider.  He throws his fastball 52.2% of the time, his cutter 28.0% of the time, his changeup 85.8% of the time, and his slider 6.9% of the time.

How many games (if any) do you think the Rockies will win in this series?

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