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Betting Preview: New York Mets at New York Yankees

Dan's breakdown of tonight's Subway Series game between the Yankees and the Mets!
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge points skyward after hitting a fifth-inning solo home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in a baseball game in New York, Friday, July 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens) ORG XMIT: NYY114

New York Mets (79-45) at New York Yankees (75-48)

Projected starting pitchers

New York Mets: Taijuan Walker 10-3, 3.36 ERA, 85 strikeouts, 33 walks, 1.20 WHIP

New York Yankees: Frankie Montas 4-10, 3.87 ERA, 117 strikeouts, 34 walks, 1.21 WHIP

Game Analysis

The Subway Series is always a big deal here in New York. It doesn’t matter if both teams suck, or if one team is clearly better than the other, these fan bases show up hungry. Getting the win is important, but there’s something else on the line: bragging rights. The New York Yankees enter tonight’s game 6-14 since the start of August, one of the worst records in the league. The Yankees also were the only team in the majors going into last night’s game to not have back-to-back wins this month, and hadn’t won two or more games in a row since the end of July in a series versus Kansas City.

Going against Max Scherzer last night didn’t give Yankees fans much hope going into the game, with the possibility of Jacob DeGrom pitching tonight. The Bronx Bombers got to Mad Max early though – getting a run across in the first inning, follwed by a solo homerun by Aaron Judge in the third. By the time Scherzer came out of the game after 6.2 innings, he had given up more than three runs in back-to-back starts for the first time this season, while walking one and netting only three strikeouts. The Mets tried to respond late, scoring two runs in the seventh off of a Daniel Vogelbach two run homerun. That would be as close as the game got, however, as the Yankees’ bullpen came in and shut it down in the final 2.2 innings for the win.

The Yankees have been struggling since the All-Star break, but back-to-back wins might have given the team some momentum coming into tonight’s game. The Yankees’ scoring issues lately are well documented, but these teams can light it up on any night when they’re feeling it –  both team’s offenses are among the best in the league in on base %, runs scored, and slugging %. The Mets are a top five team in batting average, while the Yankees lead the league in homeruns.

Meanwhile, Walker is making his first start coming off a back injury which caused him to skip his prior scheduled start. Prior to the injury, he had struggled/left early in two of his previous three appearances. Montas has struggled mightily since coming to the Yankees via trade at the deadline from Oakland. Montas is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA, 8 strikeouts, and 6 walks in three starts with the Yankees.

Maybe my optimism will come back to bite me, but I’m going with the Yankees in this one at -130. Check out this page to find the best sportsbooks to bet on this game! If you’re feeling squirrelly, take the over on total runs set at 8.5 (+100). The Mets have a 13-12 record at Yankee Stadium since 2013 – can the Yankees even that up tonight? What are your picks for the New York Mets at New York Yankees tonight?

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