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The Boston Red Sox are currently on pace for a historic season. The club currently sits at 62-29 and is on pace for an absurd 109 wins. While conventional wisdom suggests this pace canโt be sustained, conventional wisdom is wrong. 110 wins is not impossible for this Boston Red Sox team, and this unit could be one of the best in history.
As of this posting, the three best players on the team areย Mookie Betts,ย J.D. Martinez, andย Chris Sale. Each player has been playing out of their minds during the first half of 2018, and thereโs no reason to expect a drop in production.
Yes, Chris Sale has a history of wearing down as the season goes on. However, thereโs reason to believe Sale will buck that trend in 2018. In his first year with the Red Sox, Sale faltered in September primarily because then-managerย John Farrellย didnโt pace Sale over the course of the season.ย Alex Coraย has intentionally limited Saleโs outings to avoid a similar fate.
So far, itโs been working. Through 19 starts, Sale has thrown 12.2 fewer innings in 2018 than he did in 2017. Additionally, heโs thrown 1,915 pitches this season, compared to 2,084 last year. Thatโs nearly a 10% drop. His fastball velocity is topping 100, something heโs never done before this late in the year. Coraโs long-view managerial style is already showing signs of working. While we obviously wonโt know if itโll work in September and October, there are already positive signs that it will.
While Martinez and Betts will likely slow their production a little bit, thereโs no reason to suspect a massive drop off. Theyโre just that good. Betts is currently slashing .342/.432/.673 with a 195 wRC+, well above his career marks of .298/.361/.509 with a 131 wRC+. However, heโll probably stay closer to his 2018 marks than his career marks.
Betts is just 25 and entering the prime of his career. Itโs only natural that his career numbers improve as he gets closer. On average, the typical major league playerโs career peaks around the age of 28-29. Following typical trajectory, it makes perfect sense why Mookie is enjoying his best year to date.
While JD Martinez should be past his peak, heโs having the best season of his storied career. Through 85 games, Martinez is hitting .329/.392/.646 with a 178 wRC+. While most would assume thereโs no way the slugger can remain that good, this actually isnโt far off from his average production.
Since embracing launch angle philosophy in 2014, Martinez has hit .304/.366/.584 with a 153 wRC+. These numbers arenโt far off what heโs done this year, and thereโs plenty of reason to believe this yearโs numbers arenโt a fluke.
Martinez is phenomenal at hitting the ball to all parts of the field with power, and this skill translates well to Fenway Park, as well as most ballparks in the AL East. In a sense, these hitter-friendly parks are inflating his numbers, making him an even more productive hitter than he normally is. Basically, the production of all three of the best players is legit, and there are no signs that it will slow any time soon.
Earlier in the season, the Red Sox were winning mostly in spite of the bottom of the order. Third base, second base, catcher, and center field all underwent serious production problems. However, these struggles are already starting to disappearย and should continue to improve as the season goes on.
Letโs start with third base. 21-year oldย Rafael Deversย has been the primary third baseman all season long and underwent some early struggles in the season. However, the young lefty has adjusted to major league pitching and is transforming into a great hitter. Since June 6th, Devers has hit .289/.325/.500 in 120 plate appearances to go along with a 122 wRC+. His fielding still needs some work, but heโs becoming a real weapon at the plate.
Likewise, the catcher position has started to improve. Withย Christian Vazquezย injuring his pinky,ย Sandy Leonย will have the chance to win the starting job. Just like Devers, Leon has shaken off a rough start to become a solid offensive presence. Since May 6th, Leon is hitting .304/.343/.500 with a 127 wRC+. Heโs been 27% better at the plate than the league average hitter, so heโs anything but a liability at the plate. Will he continue to produce at that pace? Probably not. However, heโs still a solid hitter, especially for a catcher.
Eduardo Nunezย is in the midst of an ugly season at second base, but thereโs hope on the horizon. Boston signed longtime second basemanย Brandon Phillipsย to a minor-league deal with the understanding that he will enter the majors once heโs ready. Phillips represents an upgrade on Nunez in just about every capacity. While Phillips isnโt a difference maker like Betts or Martinez, heโs a solid starter. Right now, thatโs a considerable upgrade.
As for center fieldโฆat leastย Jackie Bradley Jr.ย is still good with the glove. Heโs beenย incredibly unluckyย at the plate, but itโs hard to believe heโll drastically turn his production around. Still, three of the four biggest weaknesses on a 62-29 team have easy fixes and should improve in the second half.
The first half of the Boston Red Sox schedule has not been easy, but theyโve managed to thrive in spite of it. Their 91 games played are among the most in the league, and theyโve played more road games than any other team in the American League.
Needless to say, that means the second half of the schedule will be considerably easier for them. With more time to rest and less leaguewide travel, the Red Sox should find themselves more rested than the average team later on in the season.
Additionally, the Red Sox currently find themselves leading the New York Yankees by two games despite playing six of their nine meetings in the Bronx. While the Yankees have a 5-4 head-to-head lead on the Sox, that probably wonโt last in the second half of the year. New York is notably worse on the road than at home, and the Sox will be hosting the Yankees more often than not in the second half of the season.
Winning 100 games in a season in an incredible feat, so asking for 110 is borderline ludicrous. It would take a phenomenal team with exceptionally talented players to pull off something like that. Fortunately, thatโs exactly what the Red Sox have.
Betts and Martinez are legitimate MVP candidates and top-five hitters in the league. Chris Sale is one of the few true aces in the league and a top-five pitcher. Combine that with a lineup with minimal weaknesses, one of the best starting rotations in baseball, and an underrated bullpen, and thatโs a formula for success.
Thereโs no limit to how good this team can be, and there are no signs theyโll put on the breaks as the season goes on. With the Yankees in the same division, the Red Sox will need every win they can get to avoid the Wild Card game. 100 wins may not be enough. 110 certainly will be.
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